2023 Super Bowl Long-Shot Bets: 9 Plus-Money Chiefs vs Eagles Picks
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce.
- If an online sportsbook is offering a bet in any market, Brandon Anderson has seen it.
- Anderson has identified nine plus-money props that stood out to him.
- Get Anderson's favorite Super Bowl long-shot props and breakdowns below.
The 2023 Super Bowl is finally here, and there are Super Bowl props for everything.
Sides and totals? Amateur bets. Player props? Been there, done that. Coin flips, anthem length, and Gatorade colors? Now we’re talking.
No event has more goofy long-shot novelty props, and if you can’t have a little fun betting the Super Bowl, you’re doing it wrong.
Let’s dive deep down those sportsbook menus and dig up nine exotic bets to make this Super Bowl all at plus money, listed by increasingly long odds.
1. Eagles Halftime/Full Time (+160 PointsBet)
This is my Super Bowl best bet, and you can read my full case elsewhere, but it’s important we start here because we need a game script that will drive our other picks.
I like the Eagles to win this game in the trenches. Philadelphia has an elite pass rush to get after Patrick Mahomes, and the league’s best offensive line and rushing attack. Philly has thrived this year by taking the lead early, playing as front runners, running the ball and bleeding out the clock.
If I’m betting on the Eagles, I do not want to rely on a late Jalen Hurts comeback against Mahomes. If Philly is trailing at half, I already hate my Eagles bet. But if Philadelphia is ahead, I’m in good position. The Eagles led at the half in 14 of their 16 wins (88%) this season.
Just betting an Eagles moneyline at -120 implies a 55% probability. This +160 implies 38%, so as long as the Eagles lead at the half in at least 70% of all wins, that tilts this bet in our favor.
If we’re going to bet against Mahomes, we may as well make it worth our time.
Pick: Eagles Halftime-Full Time Parlay (+142)
2. Haason Reddick to Record Sack in Win (+190 FanDuel)
You could make a pretty good argument that Haason Reddick has been Philadelphia’s postseason MVP thus far. He has 3.5 sacks, one of them forcing a fumble and knocking Brock Purdy out of the NFC Championship Game to effectively send the Eagles to the Super Bowl.
Reddick has at least one sack in eight of his last 10 games, and at least two sacks in four of his last six. He has 19.5 sacks on the season and has been an absolute terror coming off the edge, and Chiefs tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie are shaky and unproven against elite pass rushers.
I expect the Eagles to get to Mahomes a few times, especially on that bad ankle, and Reddick should lead the way. The math here says we need a Reddick sack in at least 63% of all Eagles wins — and he had one in 11-of-16 (69%) Eagles wins thus far. He will need to be a big part of why Philadelphia wins here so this is a correlated play.
If you like Reddick to have a big game, you can bet this even more aggressively. He’s +500 to record at least two sacks at PointsBet, and he’s also +450 to have the most sacks at BetMGM. Those numbers feel long as hot as he’s been, with 1.5-plus sacks in five of his last six.
You can also bet Reddick to have two sacks, along with 10 tackles or assists from T.J. Edwards at +1500 at DraftKings. It happened twice around the holidays and Philly’s had eight games with at least one Reddick sack and eight-plus Edwards tackles and assists. I’d price this closer to +700.
Pick: Reddick to Record a Sack & Eagles to Win (+190)
3. Over 2.5 Players With a Pass Attempt (+190 BetRivers)
Obviously Mahomes and Hurts will attempt a pass, so think of this prop another way: Will anyone other than those two guys throw? I say yes.
Both Nick Sirianni and Andy Reid’s staffs are aggressive, creative play callers. Reid has a deep playbook of gadget red zone plays and a number of weapons like Kadarius Toney, who could throw a pass on an end-around, or maybe Noah Gray on a fake QB keeper. A fake field goal or punt would also do the trick.
But the reason to bet this is that both Mahomes and Hurts come into this game with known injuries. All it takes is one to exit the game for even a few plays and we’re in business. Both coaches have trusted backups in Chad Henne and Gardner Minshew, guys they’d at least trust to throw a quick screen or out if needed.
All we need is one pass from any of the above at least 34% of the time.
4. Jerick McKinnon 40+ Receiving Yards (+280 FanDuel)
Chiefs running backs ranked second in the NFL with 826 receiving yards, and the Eagles’ terrific pass defense has been vulnerable to opposing RBs, just 24th in DVOA against them. McKinnon has not been a good runner, but he’s become a real threat in the passing game, second on the team in TDs, and especially good as a pass blocker.
If Philadelphia’s pressure is bothering the Chiefs, that could lead to more McKinnon snaps. He played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, the best pass rush K.C. has faced. Screen passes are also a very effective weapon against a great pass rush, and the Chiefs are great at them.
This feels like a McKinnon game. He’s had five games this year with at least five catches and 40 yards, all in close games against tough defenses. I’d rather play this alternate over and sprinkle 50+ at +410 than go with his traditional line of 20.5 to make it worth our while in case he just doesn’t get on the field, especially since Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected back.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon 40+ Receiving Yards (+280)
5. Philadelphia defense anytime TD (+750 FanDuel)
Defensive touchdowns have been abnormally common in the Super Bowl. We’ve seen 21 defensive TDs in 56 games, which means a 37.5% chance in any random Super Bowl. Twenty of those 21 TDs were scored by the winning team.
Put another way, the winning team has scored a defensive TD in over 30% of all Super Bowls. And those odds are going up — we’ve seen 15 defensive scores in the last 30 Super Bowls, an average of one every two!
The Eagles have the best sack rate of any team this century. If they pressure a beatable Chiefs line and force Mahomes into a mistake, maybe it turns into six for the Eagles and a big payout for us. If you prefer to play both sides, you can get any defensive TD at +300.
You can bet this even more aggressively at DraftKings, where there’s a +3000 parlay for any defensive player to score a TD and any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP. We’ve already seen 10 defensive MVPs (17.5%), and any defensive TD will make an MVP case more likely. This bet has hit in six previous Super Bowls, including four of the last 22 (18%), so +3000 is too long.
Pick: Eagles Defense Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)
6. Miles Sanders Most Playoff Rushing Yards (+900, bet365)
Christian McCaffrey is the current postseason leader at 238 rushing yards. Kenneth Gainwell is the next closest competitor at 160, with Miles Sanders at 132 and Isiah Pacheco 121. For Sanders to win this, we need him to run for 107 yards, outpace Gainwell by at least 28 and stay ahead of Pacheco.
The Eagles rank first in rushing DVOA, EPA, and explosive plays, while the Chiefs run defense is vulnerable at best and downright bad at worst. A winning Eagles script has Philadelphia running the ball often, chewing up clock to keep Mahomes on the sidelines. That should mean heavy carries for Sanders, whose carry share is especially high in closer games.
Sanders had six games this season with at least 90 rushing yards, so about one-third of the time we are one nice run away from cracking this. Add in a few extra snaps and rushes and we’re in serious business. Our Sean Koerner made a great case for why Sanders will lead this game in rushing. This is a great escalator to that bet and likely +900 on 107+ yards for the top runner in a game the Eagles want to run all night.
7. No Eagles Punts in the Game (+2800 FanDuel)
One of the trademarks of this Eagles team is their aggressiveness on fourth down. Philadelphia attempted 32 fourth-down conversions and has been even more aggressive in the postseason, including going for it on fourth down in their own territory on the opening drive against San Francisco.
You better believe Nick Sirianni’s guys will be more aggressive than ever against Patrick Mahomes. Could that potentially mean an entire game with no punts?
The Eagles only punted once in their last Super Bowl, and New England didn’t punt at all that game. The Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl — Mahomes’ first — saw only two punts from each side.
The Eagles have nine games in Sirianni’s two seasons with two or fewer punts. Two times they’ve gone an entire game without a punt. One of them was in October 2021 — against the Chiefs.
Pick: No Eagles Punts (+2800)
8. DeVonta Smith to win Super Bowl MVP (+3300 FanDuel)
I wrote a full Super Bowl MVP preview, so you can see my case for Smith there. I don’t like Hurts as an MVP favorite for the Eagles, so the Philadelphia field is ripe for the picking and Smith is my most likely non-QB MVP.
Smith averaged 6.4 catches for 93 yards in his last seven games before the weird 49ers game, with 5 TDs in that stretch. The Chiefs rank 26th in DVOA against the right side of the field, where Smith typically plays, and they’re 31st against WR1s. They also play the eighth-most man coverage, and all but one Smith TD has come against man this year. I project Smith around six catches for 80 yards with upside for plenty more.
If you like Smith, you should also consider a DraftKings +1100 parlay for Smith and Travis Kelce to combine for 200 receiving yards and two scores. My projections put that duo at 170 yards and 1.7 TDs. Kelce is a monster and could do most of that on his own.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Super Bowl MVP +3300
Speaking of Kelce, let’s finish with one last off-the-wall bet…
9. Both Jason and Travis Kelce to Score a TD (+20000 FanDuel)
I probably don’t have to make the case for Travis. He scored 15 TDs in 19 games this year and has found the end zone in seven of eight playoff games, and he has the best anytime TD odds of any player.
But this is the Kelce bowl, so is it really possible that Eagles starting center Jason Kelce could find the end zone for the first time in his NFL career?
It might mean playing at the end of the line of scrimmage in an imbalanced formation so he’s eligible, or lining him up as an extra tackle, perhaps with Landon Dickerson taking a snap at center where he played in college. Or maybe Jason lines up at fullback or tight end, Mike Vrabel style, and gets in.
You might think it’s crazy — but I know two guys who don’t.
On October 5th, Nick Sirianni — Jason’s head coach, you might recall — was on “The Pat McAfee Show” talking about how he had to bribe Jason with a keg to bring him back this season, and how valuable he is to the team and so nimble he is on his feet. Unprompted, he deadpanned that maybe he’d need to line Jason up eligible in the backfield and give him a couple carries or a screen pass sometime if it meant keeping him another year.
Then, one month ago today, Jason was talking with Travis on the brothers’ “New Heights” podcast. Travis laughed about the Chiefs’ ring-around-the-Rosie snow TD, dubbed Arctic Circle Snow Globe Left with Reindeer Personnel, and how surely the Eagles could get creative and find Jason a way to score.
“We’re still waiting on that Jason Kelce touchdown, man,” Travis quipped.
Two mentions of a possible Jason Kelce touchdown in the last few months, one by his coach and another by his brother?
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. This is the single most fun bet you can make for this year’s Super Bowl.
At Circa, you can Kelce even harder — this bet is listed at +74500 there!
Pick: Travis & Jason Kelce To Each Score Touchdown (+20000)
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