There's arguably no bigger individual NFL award than Super Bowl MVP.
Sure, regular-season MVP is great, but the Super Bowl MVP did the thing he's dreamed of since playing football as a kid — he contributed in the most meaningful way en route to his team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as champions of the world.
Like most major NFL awards, we often just give any MVP award to the quarterback (look no further than the three favorites in Super Bowl MVP odds below). Since 2010, 12 of the 16 Super Bowl MVPs were the winning QB.
But we did get three receiver winners mixed in there, including one from the Rams (Cooper Kupp) and another from the Patriots (Julian Edelman), so there's precedent in a WR MVP winner — and perhaps betting value.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +280 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +300 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +300 |
| Kenneth Walker (SEA) | +1300 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | +1300 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | +1500 |
| Jarrett Stidham (DEN) | +1800 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +4500 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | +4500 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | +5500 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | +6000 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | +7500 |
Super Bowl MVP odds via DraftKings
We made four Super Bowl MVP bets before the playoffs started. Three of the four are on teams still competing, though our Bo Nix ticket died a sad death minutes after a huge overtime win when Nix was revealed to have a broken ankle.
But our Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2800) and Puka Nacua (+3500) tickets are looking pretty tasty, and now on the brink of the Super Bowl, I'm doubling down and betting both JSN and Nacua again as a Super Bowl lookahead.
Both players fit the profile of past Super Bowl MVP winners at WR — high volume receivers who are involved all game moving the chains, racking up receptions and yardage, and now we're guaranteed to get one of them in the Super Bowl.
And the likely matchup is an even bigger selling point.
The Patriots are road favorites in the AFC Championship Game, thanks to that Nix injury leaving Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback. That puts JSN or Nacua in line to face New England's pass defense, and that defense ranked dead last by DVOA against WR1s on the season.
New England's strength of schedule has been a major topic of discussion all season, and the the Patriots lucked out in pass defense too. They didn't have to face Nico Collins in the Divisional Round and ducked Ja'Marr Chase earlier this season when he was injured.
The one truly elite WR1 the Patriots faced this season was Atlanta's Drake London. He caught nine balls for 118 yards and scored three touchdowns! Miami's Tyreek Hill might also qualify; he had six catches for 109 yards.
Looking back at New England's schedule, the Patriots faced a good WR1 seven times this season, and those players averaged 7.0 catches for 104 yards. That's the sort of volume and yardage we'll need to get into the Super Bowl MVP mix, and it's a tasty matchup for Nacua or JSN.
Right now, you can bet Smith-Njigba at +1500 (DraftKings) and Nacua at +1700 (FanDuel). Obviously one of them will be eliminated on Sunday, but if you bet both, you're guaranteed a juicy matchup at a long number for the most important weapon on the Super Bowl field.
Betting JSN and Puka together gives us a ticket with combined odds of approximately +750, around 6% implied, and that's less than one-third the percentage of receivers who have won Super Bowl MVP over the last 16 years, at 19%.
Why wait to place your Super Bowl bet after we get the matchup and these odds are nuked?
Bet Smith-Njigba and Nacua now and you're guaranteeing yourself the best weapon on the field for the Super Bowl favorite.
