Super Bowl Odds: Our Projections Still Favor Chiefs Over Packers, Bills & Buccaneers

Super Bowl Odds: Our Projections Still Favor Chiefs Over Packers, Bills & Buccaneers article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers, Travis Kelce and Tom Brady.

Super Bowl Odds

Team
Odds
Chiefs
+210
Packers
+210
Bills
+325
Buccaneers
+450
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus.

And then there were four.

With conference championships set, we’re taking this opportunity to look ahead and project Super Bowl chances for the remaining quartet.

Using the team ratings of the five analysts who power our NFL PRO Projections, we created consensus projections for each team to win the Super Bowl, then compared those to each team’s implied probability of winning based on DraftKings‘ odds.

You’ll find the difference between those two chances below.

And finally, we also used our consensus ratings to project spreads for all four possible Super Bowl matchups.

Note: All of these projections assume Patrick Mahomes will play in the AFC Championship Game.

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Super Bowl Projections

Team
Implied Prob.
Our Proj.
Difference
Chiefs
30.4%
28.8%
-1.6%
Packers
30.4%
24.7%
-5.7%
Bills
17.1%
22.5%
+5.4%
Buccaneers
22.1%
24.0%
+1.9%

Note: We’ve removed the vig — or the tax sportsbooks charge to take a bet — from the implied probabilities above, so they add up to 100% for the purpose of direct comparison with our projections.

Convert more odds with our Betting Odds Calculator.

Projected Super Bowl Spreads

AFC Winner
NFC Winner
Proj. Spread
Chiefs
Packers
Chiefs -1.2
Bills
Packers
Bills -0.1
Chiefs
Buccaneers
Chiefs -0.8
Bills
Buccaneers
Buccaneers -0.3

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