Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston? Betting On Saints’ Starting QB For Week 1

Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston? Betting On Saints’ Starting QB For Week 1 article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston

Saints Starting QB Odds: Week 1

QB Odds Implied Probability
Jameis Winston -185 64.9%
Taysom Hill +240 29.4%
Ian Book +1600 5.9%
Trevor Siemian +2000 4.8%
Odds as of June 23 and via FanDuel

For some reason, people seem to be all-in on Jameis Winston starting Week 1 for the Saints.

Winston’s -185 odds give him a 64.9% implied probability to be the Week 1 starter in New Orleans (convert more odds using our Betting Odds Calculator) — more than double the 29.4% implied probability that Taysom Hill’s +240 odds give him. But here’s the thing: We’re still in the very early stages of a competition that seems to be equal in Sean Payton’s eyes.

Payton told ESPN’s Mike Triplett in early June that the Saints are prepared to tailor the offense to either quarterback. And look at how he spoke about the two in a conversation with Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer earlier this spring:

“The most important thing is leading this team, leading the offense to scores—protecting the football and scoring. There are certain commandments that we think are real important. Both of them have shown great leadership skills. Both of them have been very unselfish.”

These odds should better reflect the coin-toss this competition is, and are thus creating betting value on Hill. I think Hill is going to be better in practice than Winston (which the Saints have yet to hold traditional versions of during OTAs or minicamp). And even if the competition drags into the preseason, there’s always the chance Winston has a terrible showing.

All we need for this bet to cash is Hill to start the first snap on the first series of Week 1 — not become Drew Brees’ permanent successor. And even at +220, after sharp bettors already steamed +300, the value on Hill makes this my favorite Week 1 starter bet for 2021.

Pick: Taysom Hill +240 at FanDuel

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