The Tennessee Titans (1-4) and Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) face off in NFL Week 6. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Raiders are 4-point spread favorites over the Titans (Raiders -4) with the over/under set at 41.5. Las Vegas is a -225 moneyline favorite; Tennessee is priced at +190 to pull off the upset.
Since their upset win in New England in Week 1, the Raiders have lost four straight, all against teams with records of .500 or better. A soft matchup against the Titans offers the Raiders a great spot to get right, though the Titans were able to erase an 18-point deficit last week against the Cardinals to earn their first win of the season.
Let's get into my Titans vs Raiders predictions for Sunday, October 12.
Titans vs Raiders Prediction
- Titans vs Raiders pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
My Titans vs Raiders best bet is on Ashton Jeanty to go over his rushing yards total. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Titans vs Raiders Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Titans vs Raiders Week 6 Preview
Tennessee Titans Betting Preview: Troubling Trends
With their shocking comeback win over the Cardinals, the Titans won for just the fourth time in 22 games under head coach Brian Callahan and also moved to 4-18-0 ATS under Callahan.
The win quite possibly may have saved Callahan's job for another week, something the fanbase may not appreciate.
While a win is a win and you have to credit the Titans for staying in the fight, it wasn't exactly a performance that suggests the team is ready to turn the corner. In fact, it revolved more around some absolutely atrocious football from the Cardinals.
Per NFL NextGenStats, the Titans' win probability was as low as 1.8%, and they had an average win probability of 12.1% in the game, which is the second-lowest average of any team ever to come back and win in the NextGenStats era.
The Titans caught a massive break as Emari Demercado fumbled through the back of the end zone, turning a fairly horrific play defensively into a critical turning point in the game. You simply can't chalk that Demercado error up to anything but a lucky break for the Titans.
Tyler Lockett's critical fourth-quarter touchdown following a should-be pick wasn't much better, and it's pretty plain to see that the Titans were simply gifted a win in a game where many of the flaws they’ve consistently exhibited this season were still on full display.
Cam Ward completed 21-of-39 passes and threw for 265 yards, finishing with a passer rating of 64.6. The rookie ranks 47th with a passer rating of 55.3 this season.
While Ward has not been overly sharp and at times worked too slowly through his progressions, it hasn't helped matters that the Titans' offensive line ranks well below average in most key statistics.
Tennessee's offensive line has allowed a pressure rate of 39.8% (sixth highest in the NFL), and holds an average player grade of 69.5 (PFF).
The Titans have also had a difficult time establishing an effective running game, which has made life even more difficult for Ward. Tennessee's rushing offense holds the 27th-worst rating, per PFF, and Tony Pollard holds a running grade of 64.1, averaging four yards per carry.
Per Sharp Football analysis, the Titans offense ranks last in EPA/play this season, holds an explosive play rate of just 4.4% and also ranks last in third-down conversion rate.
The Titans haven't been much better defensively, having allowed the 29th-most yards against per play and -0.07 EPA per play. They are 31st in DVOA, but have allowed the 30th-most rushing yards per game as opposing teams have generally been in game scripts that suggest leaning on the run.
From a situational perspective, most trends are working against the Titans in this matchup. They are 0-9 ATS following their last nine wins.
Teams coming off a 17+ point comeback are 18-24 ATS over the last decade, and in the same time frame, teams that are winless through four or more games are 8-13 ATS.
Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview: Heavy Dose of Ashton Jeanty
After his Raiders suffered a 40-6 loss last week to move to 1-4, head coach Pete Carroll is also on the hot seat entering this matchup.
While the Raiders certainly weren't great last week, they weren't as pathetic as the final score suggested. Las Vegas only had 21 fewer all-purpose yards and two fewer first downs but was 0-for-4 in the red zone.
Las Vegas's opponents have a combined record of 11-8, and PFF considers it to have played the 14th-toughest schedule.
The Raiders have been fairly unconvincing defensively, but similar to the Titans, they would look slightly more respectable if the offense were able to sustain possessions at a greater rate. They hold a per-play EPA of -0.05 and have allowed 5.5 yards per attempt and allowed opponents the ninth-lowest conversion rate.
While Geno Smith completed 25-of-36 passes for 228 yards last week, his inability to avoid critical mistakes was a significant problem once again. Smith threw two picks and was sacked four times; he has thrown nine picks in the first five weeks of the season.
In what will likely be a much more favorable game script, the obvious game plan for the Raiders in this matchup will be to lean heavily on Ashton Jeanty. They should look to establish the run and keep Smith in situations where he can manage the game.
While it seems crazy to think that adjusting back to his signature pre-snap stance should make all that much of a difference, after switching back to his former stance in Week 4, Jeanty averaged 2.25 yards above expected per carry and 0.44 rush yards above expected per carry last week versus the Colts.
The Raiders rank 25th in rush-block win rate, which was the main cause of Jeanty's early struggles, but they should be able to create better running lanes in this favorable matchup against a soft Titans defense.
Brock Bowers has officially been ruled out with a knee injury, which will further improve the importance of finding success in the rushing game.
Titans vs Raiders Prediction, Betting Analysis
While I'm certainly not in love with the idea of betting on Geno Smith, this appears to be a fairly ideal get-right spot for the Raiders to bounce back and keep Smith in situations where he can avoid backbreaking mistakes.
The Titans offense has generated first downs at the lowest rate in the NFL this season and was not as improved last week as the final stats suggested, including a pretty horrendous first half.
Las Vegas's offense should get plenty of possessions to try and wear down the Titans' run defense with Jeanty, who has run quite effectively when the lanes have been there.
My lean would be with backing the Raiders to cover the spread in this matchup, but I see more value tapping into the idea that this is a pretty ideal spot for Jeanty to have a productive outing.
After combining for just 81 rushing yards in his first two NFL games, Jeanty has racked up 268 rushing yards over the last three games. Given the likelihood of a favorable script and logic that the Raiders should lean heavily into their running game, I see value in backing Jeanty to recorded over 74.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
Spread
My lean for the spread is Raiders -4.
Moneyline
I have no pick for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total.
Titans vs Raiders Betting Trends
Titans vs Raiders Weather
