Titans vs. Ravens Odds & Pick: How We’re Betting Saturday’s Divisional Round Spread
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson
- Our experts preview Saturday's NFL Divisional Round matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.
- Find betting odds, how our staff is betting the large spread, Sean Koerner's projected lines and more predictions below.
Titans at Ravens Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Ravens -9.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
It’s been three weekends since we last saw Lamar Jackson take the field. Now the MVP frontrunner and the Baltimore Ravens will host the Tennesse Titans in an AFC showdown on Saturday night.
Our experts analyze whether this Divisional Round spread is too high and make their picks.
Titans-Ravens Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Titans
The Titans have ruled out WR Adam Humphries and LB Jayon Brown (shoulder), but every other player has been removed from their injury report. The loss of Brown isn’t ideal as he’s second on the team among linebackers in tackles and stops, per Pro Football Focus.
The Ravens have two key players listed as questionable: RB Mark Ingram (calf) and TE Mark Andrews (ankle).
Ingram didn’t participate in practice until Thursday, and even then it was just a limited session. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Ingram is expected to play, but there’s no telling how large his role will be.
Meanwhile, Andrews got in limited practices all week, so it appears likely that he’ll suit up. The Ravens had a habit of repeatedly listing Andrews as questionable this season, and he still played 15 games. — Justin Bailey
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Ravens -8.5
- Projected Total: 46.5
Biggest Mismatch when Titans Have the Ball
Derrick Henry vs. Ravens Defense In Space
It all starts with the NFL’s rushing leader.
Henry has been red-hot, rushing for 393 yards over the past two games after what looks like a very strategically-sound week off. Now he’ll go against a Ravens rush defense that some have said could be a weakness based on their subpar season-long numbers (21st in yards allowed per carry).
While I actually think the Ravens’ front seven can keep Henry in check while matching up on the backend, if he can break through to the second level, he could go the distance — Marcus Peters has never wanted to get in front of a tackling dummy and Earl Thomas doesn’t have the desire nor youth to corral Henry in space. — Stuckey
Biggest Mismatch when Ravens Have the Ball
Ravens Early Offensive Attack vs. Titans Defense
I don’t need to wax poetic about how elite Lamar Jackson has been in every phase.
His speed and the Ravens’ unique offense has stunned defenses all season. And the Titans didn’t face the Ravens in the regular season.
The Ravens have been dominant in first quarters, jumping out to big leads, which makes opponents one dimensional — a scary proposition against a blitz-heavy team with an elite secondary. And then the Ravens continue running the ball and wearing their opponents down.
It’s a vicious cycle.
So, the biggest key to this game will be whether the Titans can stay in it early.
While they held two mobile quarterbacks — Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson — in check this season, Jackson is in a different stratosphere. — Stuckey
PRO System Match
It’s been historically profitable to bet underdogs in the playoffs. Since 2003, pooches have gone 98-77-4 (56%) against the spread in the postseason.
Part of the reason is because casual bettors like to wager on the favorite, so oddsmakers will inflate the line to make it easier for the underdog to cover. So the optimal situation is to bet sizable underdogs when they’re getting little public support.
Bettors following our PRO System of backing postseason underdogs (between 5.5 and 14 points) that are receiving fewer than 50% of tickets (in a matchup with a closing total of 50 or lower) would have gone 29-12-1 (71%) since 2003.
As of writing, 55% of spread tickets are backing the Ravens as 10-point favorites (see live public betting data here), but history suggests that recreational bettors will be disappointed by Saturday’s outcome.
Pick: Titans +9.5 — John Ewing
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PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Matthew Freedman: Titans +9.5
The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, but the Titans are no pushover.
Since Tannehill became the starter, they are 7-3-1 against the spread, good for a 35.4% return on investment.
Their splits with him are notable.
- Tannehill’s starts (11 games): 29.5 points scored, +5.6 point differential
- Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, +1.0 point differential
On top of that, in the entire history of our Bet Labs database (since 2003), Divisional Round road underdogs have a 36-24-1 ATS record (16.3% ROI), perhaps because bettors have overvalued home-field advantage and the bye week for the favored teams.
Jackson has been sensational for the Ravens, and it would be a true upset if he weren’t the NFL MVP, but he’s by no means a guarantor of success.
Road underdogs are 8-3 ATS (40.6% ROI) against the Ravens in Jackson’s starts.
Freedman’s pick: Titans +9.5
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Freedman is 563-440-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.
Collin Wilson: Titans +9.5
The most important thing to remember about the Divisional Round is to not fall in love with what happened on Wild Card Weekend.
It’s worth questioning if the Titans are as good as their upset win indicates, or if the Patriots were due for a severe letdown. According to the advanced box score, the answer may be somewhere in between.
Henry ran for 182 yards, with 138 coming after contact. The Titans played excellent red-zone defense and executed on third downs when needed.
It may have been Tannehill’s worst since taking over starting duties, as he connected on just two of six passes of 10 or more yards. But it didn’t matter because a Patriots defense that ranked sixth against the rush (per Football Outsiders) could not contain Henry.
Now the Titans face a Ravens defense that’s 15th in rush defense and 12th in tackling (per PFF) — a stat that may be exposed against Henry’s big-play breakaway percentage of 32.8%.
The key to the Titans’ success is not only whether Henry can bully the Baltimore front seven, but if Tannehill can get back on track as the league’s best deep-ball passer. Baltimore ranks ninth in pass coverage (per PFF), but its opposing offensive strength of schedule that ranks 30th per Football Outsiders.
Expect the Titans to continue having success on the ground, as the Ravens are in the bottom-half of rush defense categories such as power success, stuff rate and second level yards.
I bet this at Titans +10 and think the number should settle around Titans +8, so scooping any +9 or +9.5s that can be bought to 10 will be imperative.
Wilson’s pick: Titans +9.5
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Wilson is 95-82-6 (53.7%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.