Chiefs-Rams Vegas Report: Bookmakers Surprised by Sharp Over/Under Action
Denny Medley, USA Today Sports.
- The Los Angeles Rams are 3-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
- The game features the highest over/under in history at 63 points.
- Bookmakers in Las Vegas say they were surprised that sharp money came in on the over.
LAS VEGAS — There’s an absolutely loaded sports week ahead of us and it all gets started on Monday Night Football as two of the NFL’s best teams will meet under the lights at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum.
The Los Angeles Rams (-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs in what could be a Super Bowl preview. Not only are both teams 9-1 entering Monday night, but they feature two of the most potent offenses in NFL history so it’s no wonder the over/under has reached historic heights.
At the time of writing, the consensus total sits at 63 according to The Action Network App, but some books have it as high as 63.5 and a few sit at 62.5. If it closes above 62 it would be the highest over/under in NFL history.
With two of the league’s best teams and a total that high it’s no wonder that everyone around Las Vegas expects this game to be do massive numbers.
“This is one of the biggest games of the year,” Derek Wilkinson of the Westgate SuperBook said. “We’ve taken mostly public money on the Chiefs so far and the line has dropped from Rams -3.5(-110) to Rams -3.”
As of Friday the Westgate hadn’t seen much sharp action but Wilkinson had a feeling that would change as we got closer to kick.
“I think it’s going to come in on the Chiefs late,” he explained. “I also like the Chiefs to win this one on the road. All of our total money is coming in on the over of 63.5 which has held since the total came out.”
Jason Simbal, the sportsbook manager at CG Technologies, has seen some respected money weigh in on the game.
“What’s giving me a little heartburn is that our best totals bettor made a huge bet on the over which pushed the number to 63.5 and that is not a good thing for us,” Simbal admitted. “And I think this is the highest total we’ve ever [posted].”
A lot of times in a matchup like this, with two prolific offenses and a high total that will undoubtedly draw in public action, professional bettors will take the under. That doesn’t seem to be the case so far in this one.
“I really expected the sharper guys to go under here but that hasn’t been the case so far,” Aaron Kessler of the Golden Nugget Sportsbook began. “The problem is these guys who use models and analytics don’t have much of a frame of reference to work from.”
Kessler said they re-opened the game at Rams -4 after the venue change from Mexico City to Los Angeles but that number didn’t hang around too long.
“[The -4] did get hit pretty quick to get pushed down to Rams -3.5. It’s been holding pretty steady since then. If any number were to move it’ll likely be the total going up unless the sharps decide it’s simply too high.”