Vikings vs Eagles Odds, Pick: Expert Prediction for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Vikings vs Eagles Odds, Pick: Expert Prediction for Thursday Night Football Week 2 article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Kirk Cousins (left) and Jalen Hurts (right).

Vikings vs Eagles Odds Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 14
8:15 p.m. ET
Prime Video
Vikings Odds
-110o / -110u
Eagles Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Vikings vs. Eagles odds for Thursday Night Football have the home team installed as a six-point favorite at bet365.

Minnesota is 0-1 after a disappointing home loss to the Buccaneers, while Philadelphia escaped Tom Brady Day in New England with an unimpressive win. Vikings tackle Christian Darrisaw, who was questionable to play entering Thursday, is active for this NFC showdown at Lincoln Financial Field. His presence is huge for our expert's betting prediction.

Let's preview the NFL Week 2 edition of Thursday Night Football and make a Vikings vs. Eagles pick.

Vikings vs. Eagles

Matchup Analysis

The Vikings were fortunate to have one of the luckiest seasons in 2022, when they went 11-0 in one-score games.

In general, we expect most NFL teams to have around a .500 win percentage in one-score games. Therefore, you could say the Vikings picked up nearly 5.5 wins on one-score luck – a huge reason why they went 13-4 and made it to the playoffs. They also had the fourth-best injury luck a season ago.

Regression has already hit the Vikings hard. Minnesota lost by three points to the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers despite outgaining them by 159 yards in total offense. The Vikings had a -3 turnover differential, and two of them occurred inside the Bucs’ 30-yard line. The other turnover set up a short field for the Bucs, who failed to gain a single yard on that drive but managed to score three points.

It was the Vikings’ first one-score loss since 2021, and one they probably should’ve won.

The Eagles had much better fortune in Week 1 — when they were the luckiest team — according to our Luck Rankings. Their defense recorded a Pick-6 on the opening drive and then recovered a fumble on the first play of the Patriots’ second drive.

New England managed to come back late and nearly pulled off the comeback win, but Philadelphia hung on despite being outgained by 152 total yards. The Eagles are clearly one of the better teams in the league, but it’s likely the market will overreact to the Week 1 win and the Vikings' loss.

In fact, this matchup ranks as the top Luck Rankings matchup of Week 2, with a Luck Difference of 27 and a Luck Gap of 133.5%. Since 2018, in any game with a Luck Difference of 24+ or Luck Gap of 50%+, the unlucky team – in this case, Minnesota – has gone 96-54-4 (64%) ATS.

Bet Minnesota vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel

Vikings +6.5

Eagles -6.5

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There are a handful of key injuries to highlight for this game.

The Eagles’ injury report (as of Wednesday evening):

  • RB Kenneth Gainwell (out; ribs)
  • LB Nakobe Dean (out; foot)
  • CB James Bradberry (out; concussion)
  • S Reed Blankenship (out; ribs)

Gainwell missing the game shouldn’t impact the spread. His touches will simply go to D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, who are arguably superior running backs.

The losses on the defensive side, however, will have a huge impact. Dean is a huge loss as the middle linebacker plays a huge role in the Eagles’ defensive scheme — they will have to turn to undrafted free agent Christian Elliss. Missing two key players in the secondary — Bradberry and Blankenship — is also a huge blow, especially when considering they're facing a pass-heavy Vikings offense with elite receiving options.

The Vikings' injury report:

  • C Garrett Bradbury (out; back)

The Vikings are hoping Davenport can make his debut on Thursday Night Football. He would give their pass rush a much-needed boost after only generating a 23% pressure rate on Baker Mayfield in Week 1, despite blitzing at the highest rate (52%).

Going up against an elite pass rush, the potential losses of both Bradbury and Darrisaw would be detrimental. I’m not too worried about Bradbury’s absence as he gave up the third-most sacks (29) by a center last season. Austin Schlottmann, who will fill in for him, played well in relief after Bradbury went down.

Vikings vs. Eagles

Betting Picks & Predictions

Darrisaw is one of the best left tackles in the game and if he were to be ruled out, it would be Oli Udoh filling in. That alone would lower my Vikings power rating by about 0.5 points, but considering they're already without Bradbury, I would have it be a total drop of one point in power rating. The Eagles' injury report, specifically on the defensive side, would also be worth around a one-point drop in team rating.

Therefore, if Darrisaw ends up suiting up, Minnesota would have around a 0.5-point edge in the injury report, while also being the top play of our Week 2 Luck Rankings.

Vikings +6.5 is the play here, but I’m willing to wait and see if Darrisaw is going to suit up or if the line gets back to +7.

Author's note: Darrisaw is active. Follow me in the Action App, as I'll post any official bets there before kickoff.

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