The Best Week 12 NFL Prop Bets: Brandon Allen, Ryan Tannehill, More
David Berding-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brandon Allen.
- Mike Randle highlights five of the best NFL prop bets for Sunday's Week 12 main slate.
- Find picks on the over/under of Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels' rushing yards and much more below.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
- Broncos at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- Giants at Bears: 1 pm ET
- Steelers at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
- Jaguars at Titans: 4:05 pm ET
- Buccaneers at Falcons: 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 12 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are three props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate, with two 9-rated selections. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 344-249-14 (57% win rate).
Broncos QB Brandon Allen
- The Opponent: Jets (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-210)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Denver quarterback Brandon Allen has performed admirably since replacing Joe Flacco in Week 9. The 27-year-old journeyman has thrown three touchdowns and just one interception with 31 rushing yards in two tough matchups.
Last week at Minnesota, Allen totaled 240 passing yards en route to a respectable QB18 performance in a tough road environment.
While Denver will likely feature a run-heavy gameplan, Allen should be able to take advantage of the short and intermediate areas of the field with his receivers. Wideout Courtland Sutton has produced the overall WR15 and WR12 performances with Allen while rookie tight end Noah Fant tallied overall TE2 performance in Week 9.
Buffalo’s secondary is one of the best in the league, but it can be attacked in the passing via the running back position. They have allowed 5.5 receptions and 40 receiving yards to opposing running backs, which is promising for the Broncos two-headed attack of Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman.
Certainly, this game provides with a Buffalo advantage, which also brings in to play garbage time stats for Allen as well. This 0.5 passing touchdown prop is simply too low, even for a below-average Denver offense.
Our projections have Allen at 1.1 passing touchdowns which is 60% over his implied total.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -240.
Bears WR Anthony Miller
- The Opponent: Giants (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Over the past few weeks, Miller has quietly started to make a fantasy impact even with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s struggles.
Miller saw a season-high 90.9% snap share in last week’s loss at the Rams, with a season-high 11 targets.
The Bears return home with a very favorable receiver matchup against the Giants, who allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Trubisky’s 7.9 yards per pass attempt ranks a distant 23rd per PlayerProfiler.
I expect head coach Matt Nagy to bring a conservative passing game plan featuring the area of the field that Miller often covers. Last season, Miller did score seven touchdowns and was Top 30 in red zone receptions despite playing with an injured shoulder all season.
This is prime spot to take advantage of a low prop total, I’m taking the over on Miller’s 25.5 receiving yardage total. We project Miller at 32.5 receiving yards which is 16% above his implied total of 26.4 yards.
I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -125.
Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels
- The Opponent: Bengals (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 31.5 rushing yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Samuels has become the do-everything player for Pittsburgh when running back James Conner has been out. He has more than doubled his per game rushing attempts (11) and receiving targets (10) when Conner has been unavailable.
The return of Benny Snell has helped suppress this rushing total, as Pittsburgh will likely deploy a three-headed backfield with Samuels, Snell and Trey Edmunds. However, Snell’s return has limited impact on Samuels, who can reach this prop on running or receiving downs as the dominant backfield option against the Bengals.
Earlier in the season, Samuels produced the overall RB9 performance with 83 total yards and one touchdown.
Cincinnati has currently allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing running backs along with nine rushing touchdowns. The Bengals have one of the NFL’s worst linebacking groups, providing even more impetus to trust Samuels in this spot.
With wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster out and Diontae Johnson having just cleared the concussion protocol, the Steelers likely profile as a run-heavy game script. Samuels’ versatility allows him to reach this prop through usage in a variety of down and distance scenarios.
We project Samuels at 52 rushing yards, a full 62% over his implied total of 19.5 yards. This is the second-largest prop differential on the Sunday main slate.
I would bet this 9-rated prop down to -150.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
- The Opponent: Jaguars (4:05 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-150)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Tannehill brings that Konami-code rushing ability that all fantasy players love. The Tennessee quarterback has been a major factor in the Titans’ run game the past two weeks, having rushed for an average of 37.5 yards per game.
The Jacksonville pass rush provides opportunities for mobile quarterbacks, as the Jaguars have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (three) to opposing signal-callers.
Tennessee wants to limit pass attempts and keep the ball on the ground behind running back Derrick Henry. In their last game in Week 10 against the Chiefs, Tannehill only totaled 19 pass attempts. In a game that profiles to be a close low-scoring battle, it seems that double-digit rushing yards are a safe prop bet for a quarterback with 4.70 40-yard dash speed.
We project Tannehill for 13.4 rushing yards which is 21% over his implied total of 11.4.
I would bet this prop down to -180.
Falcons WR Russell Gage
- The Opponent: Buccaneers (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 3 receptions (-114)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
The second-year Atlanta wideout has filled the WR3 role that was vacated when Mohamed Sanu was traded to New England.
With Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman again ruled out, there is a per-game average of 12.3 targets available against the statistically third-worst pass defense in the NFL.
Gage has seen 18 targets over the past three weeks while totaling 13 receptions. With the highest over/under total on Week 12 schedule, it is not hard to see a high-scoring game with Gage equaling that three-week reception average.
We project Gage for 3.5 receptions, which is 17% more than his implied total. I would be this 9-rated prop down to -125.