Public Bettors Fading Josh Rosen in First Career Start

Sep 28, 2018 2:48 PM EDT
  • Just 26% of bettors are taking the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday) as a 3-point home dog in Josh Rosen's first start.
  • The overs in the Saints' and Falcons' games have the highest level of public support this week following the 43-37 game between the two teams last week.

As Evan Abrams documented earlier in the week, the public is not off to a good start this season. In fact, it’s off to its worst start in 15 years. Things will likely even out, as they tend to do, and perhaps this week will be the public’s time to shine.

Here are the three most popular bets for Week 4:

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons Over (53.5)

1 p.m. ET

With 82% of bets on the over, this is the most popular side or total of the week. These aren’t just $5 Joes, either, as the over is also getting 93% of the money. This huge glut of action has caused crazy line movement, as the total has risen from 48 to 53.5 since opening.


Why the public loves the over: Last week’s game between the Falcons and Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium yielded 80 points. Bettors expect points in a dome setting — and often times they see them, as indoor games have gone over 51.5% of the time since 2003 compared to 49.7% of the time outdoors, according to Bet Labs data.

Bettors are probably letting their success on these two teams’ overs ride, as all three Bengals games and two of Atlanta’s three games have gone over this season.


>> All odds as of 1:00 p.m. ET Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

4:05 p.m. ET

With 74% of spread bets, the Seahawks are currently the only team this week getting more than 70% of bets. However, they have moved from -4 to -3 since opening.

Why the public loves Seattle: Russell Wilson or Josh Rosen … hmm…

No, not you.

Though Seattle isn’t the same team it was back in its heyday, its success this decade is still fresh in bettors’ memories. When you have a recent Super Bowl champ going up against a quarterback making his first start, I think we know what side most bettors will choose.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Over (50.5)

4:25 p.m. ET 

With 80% of bets, the over in this game is the second-most popular bet of the week. Similar to the Bengals-Falcons game, this over is also getting a load of the actual money wagered (86%). The line movement hasn’t been as extreme, though, moving from 49 to 50.5 since opening.

Why the public loves the over:  Drew Brees and the Saints are no stranger to public overs. Over the past five seasons, 42 of the Saints’ games have had at least 70% of bets on the over, the most in the NFL over that span.

Bettors have profited on these overs, too, as they’ve gone 27-15 in those games for nearly 11 units — more than twice as profitable as any other team in that situation.

Though the game won’t be played in a dome, the weather should be beautiful in East Rutherford, N.J., with sunny skies, temps in the low 70s and not much wind expected.

Credit:

Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen (3) reacts after the game against the Chicago Bears at State Farm Stadium.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money
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