Finland and Switzerland will meet in the quarterfinal round of the 2026 Winter Olympics on Wednesday. Puck drop is set for 12:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on CNBC and streamed on Peacock.
Finland is priced at +100 to cover the puck line of -1.5, with the over/under set at 5.5 (O +128/U -158). Finland is a -250 favorite to win outright, while Switzerland is +202 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Finland vs Switzerland predictions and Olympics picks.
Finland vs Switzerland Odds, Pick
| Switzerland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 5.5 120o / -142u | +180 |
| Finland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 5.5 120o / -142u | -218 |
- Finland vs. Switzerland Puck Line: Finland -1.5 (+100), Switzerland +1.5 (-122)
- Finland vs. Switzerland Over/Under: 5.5 (O +128 /U -158)
- Finland vs. Switzerland Moneyline: Finland -218, Switzerland +180
Finland vs. Switzerland Preview
Finland
Finland didn't look overly cohesive in its 4-1 loss to Slovakia in the opening matchup of the tournament. Though it had enough chances to generate more than one goal, more significant mistakes in the game were made by Finland, and the result was quite reasonable despite the disparity in chances.
The team responded with an excellent effort in a 4-1 win over Sweden, in which it was masterful defensively at even strength, as Sweden only truly generated chances once score effects had fully taken hold. It was the kind of gritty, determined effort that has become the trademark of the program.
Finland then dismantled a very poor Italian side 11-0. Though no other team was nearly as dominant as Finland versus Italy, including Switzerland on Monday, it's still hard to say the game holds a ton of significance from a handicapping perspective.
Finland adjusted its offensive units versus Italy, and the newly formed mix was obviously highly effective. After a strong start to the tournament, Eeli Tolvanen was promoted to the top line to skate alongside Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, so that Mikael Granlund could center the third line. It's difficult to assess whether the changes will hold, as Anton Lundell is expected to return to the lineup (illness) on Wednesday, and would logically be used as the third-line center.
Finland's depth on the back end is a concern relative to other powerhouses in the tournament. It holds three better-than-average defenders in Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, and Nikko Mikkola, but the rest of the unit is slightly concerning. Nikolas Mantinpalo has played well since being scratched in the opener, though, and does seem to raise the floor of the third unit.
Juuse Saros offered a shaky performance in Finland's opener versus Slovakia, which was not entirely concerning given that he has quietly been a well-below-average goaltender at the NHL level over the past two seasons. However, he's stopped 49 of 50 shots in the following two games and will presumably be the starter in this matchup.
Switzerland
Switzerland's program has come on strong in recent years, having lost 1-0 in the Gold Medal game in overtime at the 2025 World Championship to a strong American side and 2-0 to Czechia in the Gold Medal game in 2024. Head coach Patrick Fischer seems to have plenty of respect from his side and seems to be doing a better job handling North American skaters than the coaches of other European nations with comparable upside in recent years.
Switzerland has seemingly lived up to the hype in this tournament, and it seems fair to argue that most power rankings would place them just below Finland in fifth place. They took care of business versus France and generated more high-quality scoring chances versus Canada than the score would suggest before earning an overtime win over Czechia.
Though the final score was obviously quite close, Switzerland held a 13 to 5 edge in shots from the inner slot versus Czechia. They allowed 10 shots from the inner slot versus Canada while generating nine of their own.
While Switzerland responded well with an overtime win versus Czechia, losing Kevin Fiala for the tournament undoubtedly dealt a huge blow to their chances. Fiala was the 2024 MVP at the World Championships and was arguably Switzerland's best forward in their matchup versus Canada, prior to the late injury.
They will be at a slightly greater disadvantage given that they are playing a back-to-back in this matchup, but this particular back-to-back spot should prove less taxing than the average NHL back-to-back as they coasted past Italy quite comfortably early in the day on Tuesday and don't have to travel.
Leonardo Genoni stopped 20 of 20 shots versus Italy. It's not entirely clear if he will get the start on Wednesday over Akira Schmid, but it seems more likely to believe that Genoni is viewed as the team's number one, despite the fact that Schmid is a fringe NHLer. Genonni was named MVP at the 2025 World Championships and holds a 915 save percentage across 34 appearances this season with EV Zug.
Finland vs. Switzerland Prediction
Finland will certainly win this game more often than not, but Switzerland looks to be a little more live than prices in the +200 range suggest. Even versus a side like Canada, Switzerland created plenty of quality scoring opportunities and has looked fairly sharp throughout the tournament.
It will likely take some favorable puck luck and a strong performance in goal from Genoni, but this doesn't appear to be as much of a David vs Goliath matchup as oddsmakers are implying, and Switzerland should be able to hang around and make it interesting.
With Fiala gone, there is a pretty wide gap in talent disparity, but all of Switzerland's top players have been excellent in this tournament.
A price of +525 for Josi to score also looks to be worth a shout. Josi has eight goals and 23 points over the past 20 games at the NHL level, and is averaging 3.1 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game over that span. He's scored in both games since Fiala went down with an injury in this tournament, racking up 10 shots on goal in that span, and we should see the Swiss Captain stay involved offensively in this matchup.
Pick: Switzerland Moneyline +202 (FanDuel, Play to +190), Roman Josi Anytime Goalscorer +525 (FanDuel, Play to +490)
