NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Bruins Game 7 (Saturday, May 4)
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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | +110 |
| Bruins Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 5 -125o / +105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game 7 on Saturday, May 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Before Game 5 on Tuesday, the narrative was already moving past the series to what changes the Leafs would or wouldn't make over the summer, but after two straight Toronto wins thanks in no small part to outstanding goaltending, it's back to being anyone's series.
Both these teams have playoff demons to exercise, so let's examine the upcoming contest before offering a Leafs vs. Bruins prediction.
What's changed since the Leafs fell behind 3-1 in the series? Certainly not the offense – Toronto has gone four straight games without scoring more than two goals.
Granted, you can note that part of the reason why Toronto's offense might be lackluster is that Auston Matthews has been dealing with an illness during the first round, which has led to him missing the last two contests entirely. Additionally, Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman deserves just as much credit for Toronto's minimal offense as the Leafs' forwards do blame.
Those are valid points, but they don't change the underlying issue, which has been a throughline for the entire series. Toronto's core, whether due to health issues or otherwise, has not been consistent in this series and most of its depth players haven't been making up the slack.
In fact, Max Domi leads the Leafs in scoring despite having just four points through six playoff outings. Then there's the Leafs' power play, which is a laughable 1-for-20.
The difference recently is that it hasn't mattered. Since taking over for Ilya Samsonov late in Game 4, Joseph Woll has stopped 54 of 56 shots (.964 save percentage). When you're getting goaltending like that, your scoring doesn't need to be anything special.
Should Toronto expect more of the same for Woll in Game 7? It will certainly be a high-pressure situation, but so far he's done well in those, posting a 1.78 GAA and a .933 save percentage over seven career playoff games. Granted, he was also rather inconsistent during the 2023-24 regular season with a 12-11-1 record, 2.93 GAA and .907 save percentage in 25 outings, so he's certainly not a sure thing. But sometimes the team who wins is just the one who has the hotter goaltender, and right now, that's Toronto.
Which isn't to suggest for a second that Boston's shortcomings have anything to do with Swayman.
He's been fantastic in this series with a 1.60 GAA and a .947 save percentage across five starts. The fact that the Bruins have won only three games despite his performance is entirely a combination of Woll's recent brilliance and the failure of those in front of Swayman. That's why I believe the Bruins to stick with Swayman in Game 7 even though they have another capable netminder in Linus Ullmark.
Ultimately, the burden has to fall on the Bruins' offense to break through Woll. The Bruins did finish with 3.03 xG in Game 5 and another 3.07 in Game 6, which suggests Boston's attack would have seen some success against average goaltending. Still, with the stakes so high, they need to find a way to come out in full force.
The Bruins were outshot a staggering 12-1 in the first period in Game 6. Even if the shooting ultimately evened out and Boston escaped that period in a scoreless tie, allowing Toronto to occupy the initiative for that long is simply unacceptable and put far too much of the burden on Swayman early on.
In terms of individual performers, the Bruins could use more from David Pastrnak. His two goals and four points in six playoff contests isn't bad, but it's not the kind of production you want out of your best attacker. Meanwhile, Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle have each been limited to two assists in the first round.
Having any of those players step up in Game 7 would go a long way to allowing the Bruins to eliminate Toronto.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Maple Leafs have lost their last five Game 7s, including three against the Bruins. Meanwhile, Boston blew a 3-1 first-round series lead to Florida in 2023, and the Bruins are now in danger of doing it for the second straight year. Whichever team wins will be extending that misery while the other will be closing a hard chapter.
Oddsmakers think Boston is more likely to come out ahead despite dropping the past two games. With the series in Boston and given Woll is less proven than Swayman, that's understandable. Still, I don't like betting against a hot hand, which Woll certainly is, and I have to respect how well the netminder also did in the 2023 postseason.
For that reason, whether Boston or Toronto wins, I suspect this will be another low-scoring game in a series that's featured plenty of them. I recommend taking the Under 5.5 goals rather than attempting to pick a winner.
If you did want to pick a winner on the moneyline, though, I'd go with Toronto. I don't love the bet nearly as much as the Under, but despite oddsmakers favoring the Bruins, I see these teams as even enough for this game to be essentially a coin flip, so in that scenario you may as well chase the bigger potential payout.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-125 at DraftKings) | Play to -140
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