NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Islanders (Tuesday, December 19)
Photo by Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Edmonton Oilers.
Oilers vs. Islanders Odds
| Oilers Odds | -142 |
| Islanders Odds | +118 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +106 |
Home sweet home no more. After opening the season with one of the cushiest home schedules in the league, the Edmonton Oilers embark on an extended road trip, starting with Tuesday night's inter-conference battle versus the New York Islanders.
The Oilers are just starting to get comfortable in Kris Knoblauch's system, but their biggest challenge lies ahead. Edmonton has to run a gauntlet of top Metropolitan Division teams, including the Islanders, New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.
Analytically, the Isles are the weakest of the bunch, and their record is starting to reflect that. New York has dropped two in a row and five of their last 11 to move to the outer boundary of a playoff position. Defensive responsibility hasn't been a strong suit for the Islanders, and that could be their undoing against the high-octane Oilers.
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An extended winning streak recently came to an end as the Oilers hit a metaphorical wall over their last two outings. They have been humbled by crushing defeats, dropping a 5-1 loss to the Florida Panthers and a 7-4 beatdown at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Defeat was inevitable following an eight-game heater, but the Oilers were still the better team in both of those contests.
Against the Bolts, Edmonton put together a 68.6% expected goals-for rating, falling to 52.7% against the Panthers. That game score was the lowest their expected goals-for rating had been since a 52.2% rating against the Carolina Hurricanes in November. The nine games inbetween those benchmarks are some of the best metrics we've seen in the NHL.
It took a few games to get acclimated to Knoblauch's system (the Carolina game was just his fourth game as head coach), but the Oilers have leveled up their play. Edmonton posted expected goals-for ratings above 60.0% in seven of nine contests, posting a cumulative 62.1% rating across the sample.
As expected, the ice has been tilted in Edmonton's favor in virtually every measurable facet. The Oilers have been out-possessing, out-chancing and out-scoring their opponents, helping them re-assert themselves as contenders. Finding a way of maintaining that standard, particularly on the road, will be the key to staying in the playoff race.
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The Islanders have put themselves on a pedestal this season, shining in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division. Seven of the eight teams in their division are above .500, with just six points separating second from seventh place in the standings. However, the vase that is the New York Islanders is starting to wobble, and it's just a matter of time before it all comes crashing down.
New York has substantially overachieved relative to its underlying metrics. At 5-on-5, their actual goals-for rating of 51.3% is a few points higher than expected, and they fall apart further across all strengths. The Islanders are skating around with an actual goals-for rating of 49.0% and an expected percentage of 46.4%, ranking fifth-last in the NHL. Moreover, all of those benchmarks are incompatible with a team that is six games above .500 while bleeding chances against.
Opponents are rag-dolling the Islanders in their own end. So far this season, the Isles have given up the second-most scoring and the fourth-most high-danger chances. Worse, they are showing no signs of slowing down. Nine of the last 14 teams they've faced have attempted at least 10 high-danger chances, with a rolling average of 11.2 per game. Some weak opponents have surpassed that loose standard more recently, with the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens reaching 12 and 17, respectively, over the past week.
Simply, the Islanders can't continue to get outplayed and expect to win games.
Oilers vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Islanders are getting trampled by weaker opponents, leaving little doubt the Oilers can ride their superior analytics to victory. A modest two-game losing streak has tempered expectations and the betting price, but there's a substantial edge in backing Edmonton to reverse course on their mini slide.
We're planting our flag on the Oilers, backing them all the way up to -170.
Pick: Oilers Moneyline (-135 at BetMGM) | Play to -170
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