NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Predators vs Wild (Thursday, January 25)
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Predators vs. Wild Odds
| Predators Odds | -102 |
| Wild Odds | -118 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -134o / +110u |
Here's everything you need to know about Predators vs Wild odds, including NHL picks for Thursday, January 25.
There is a bottleneck forming among Central Division teams competing for a wild-card spot. Only four points separate the fourth-place Nashville Predators from the seventh-place Minnesota Wild, who face each other on Thursday night.
Nashville was on a bit of a heater to start the new year, rattling off wins in six of nine before dropping its last two. Conversely, the Wild have been riding high over their recent sample, taking a three-game win streak into tonight's intra-divisional battle.
Still, Minnesota's success has come in spite of its underwhelming metrics, and the Predators have proven to be the superior analytical team all season. That leaves a playable edge on the visitors in this pivotal Central Division showdown.
Here's my Predators vs Wild preview and pick.
Despite their modest two-game slide, the Preds are clutching to the final Western Conference playoff spot. Their 51 points give them a one-point advantage over the St. Louis Blues, amplifying the stakes for tonight's battle against the Wild. Nashville's systems are premised on impenetrable defensive structure, a standard it should get back to against Minnesota.
The Predators sit top 10 in high-danger chances allowed, limiting opponents to an average of 8.4 per game. Two opponents have exceeded that standard recently; however, Nashville has still limited four of its last six to seven or fewer quality chances. As expected, that correlates with diminished scoring chances, as those teams have also been limited to an average of 20.0 opportunities per game.
Limited 5-on-5 production is making it difficult for opponents to find the back of the net. Predators goalies have allowed just eight goals over that six-game sample, with only one team exceeding two goals at 5-on-5. What has doomed the Preds lately is a surge in special teams scoring. Eight of the last 16 goals Nashville has allowed have come at uneven strength.
A concerning trend, maybe, but also an unsustainable way for opponents to keep winning games. As extra-man opportunities dry up, goals will be in short supply. The Predators continue to play a stifling brand of hockey, and we expect more positive results to follow.
Minnesota doesn't get to brag about the same analytics success that the Predators have. The Wild sit in the bottom half of the league in most metrics, encapsulated in their 20th-ranked expected goals-for percentage. Sadly, those underlying metrics have taken a turn for the worse lately, creating a significant divide between expected results and actual outcomes.
The Wild have outplayed just three of their last 11 opponents, dropping their expected goals-for rating to 44.3%, fourth-worst in the NHL. Refining our focus onto their most recent sample, things take an even more dramatic turn. Minnesota has posted an appalling 42.8% benchmark in getting outplayed in three of its last four.
The Wild's offensive well has been absolutely depleted over that stretch. They have failed to exceed eight high-danger chances in any of those contests while being held below 16 scoring opportunities in three straight.
That's had an inverse impact on output, though; we've seen a boost in Minnesota scoring. The Wild have 11 goals at 5-on-5 and 19 overall, exceeding their expected goals-for total in three of those four contests.
But the Wild wouldn't be competing for a playoff spot without a few things working in their favor. Like their guests on Thursday night, Minnesota's redeeming quality and playoff lifeline has been its defensive presence. The Wild limit opponents to an average of 20.2 scoring and 7.8 high-danger chances per game, ranking better than the Preds in both categories.
Moreover, that standard has been maintained over their recent sample, with only one of Minnesota's previous seven opponents exceeding nine quality chances or 23 scoring opportunities.
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Predators vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota is due for a reckoning. The Wild's inverse relationship between production and output will inevitably correct, causing a crash in scoring. There's a strong possibility that comes against a defensively stout Predators squad that bottles up opponents.
All signs point toward this game being a defensive struggle. Both teams personify defensive shells, and neither gives up many opportunities against.
Although we give the edge to the Preds at an underdog price, this Central Division battle appears destined for overtime or a shootout. We're playing the Predators at plus-money and overtime at +350 or higher.
Pick: Predators +105 (PointsBet) | Overtime +370 (FanDuel)
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