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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Friday, November 6, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Wild -1.5 (-104, FanDuel)
- Charlie Coyle 1+ Points (+100, DraftKings)
- Over 6.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Sharks vs Wild Pick
The Wild have to be excited to be back home. Minnesota has played seven of its last eight games on the road and 12 of its first 17 this season. Tonight against San Jose and tomorrow night against Tampa Bay will mark just the second time this season the Wild have played two consecutive home games.
That said, Minnesota has handled a brutal schedule and started the season extremely well. The Wild sit tied with Edmonton atop the Western Conference and just three points behind Carolina for the league's best record.
On top of that, Minnesota hasn't just been winning games. The Wild have done so convincingly, tying for the third-best goal differential at +18 while leading for nearly 80 minutes more than any other team.
Jesper Wallstedt leads the NHL with +12.1 goals saved above expected and has inserted himself into the early-season Vezina conversation. The top line of Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy continues to be one of the best in the league, outscoring opponents 14-0 at 5-on-5 with a 67.2% expected goal share across 182 minutes together, per MoneyPuck.
The Sharks, on the other hand, still appear to be figuring things out. San Jose ranks 29th in expected goal share at 42.86% and has lost five of its last six games, with the lone win coming against Vancouver. The Sharks have been outscored 24-11 during that stretch.
As mentioned earlier, Minnesota is on the front end of a back-to-back, with what could be considered a bigger matchup against Tampa Bay tomorrow. That means either Calvin Pickard or Wallstedt could get the start tonight.
Either way, I like the matchup for Minnesota. San Jose is also playing the first half of a back-to-back, with a game in Dallas tomorrow, so the Sharks' net is up in the air as well.
If you want to wait for the goalie announcements, you might get a better price if Pickard starts. However, I'm grabbing the puck line now given how often the Wild have played with a lead.
Pick: Wild -1.5 (-104, FanDuel)
Blue Jackets vs Sabres Pick
How about Columbus over the last two weeks? The Blue Jackets have won consecutive games against Dallas and Colorado, gave Carolina a late third-period scare in a 3-2 loss, and picked up a win against Vegas a handful of days earlier.
Columbus has been a little fortunate, controlling just 43.74% of the expected goal share over its last six games, dating back to the Vegas win. The Blue Jackets have also generated the second-fewest scoring chances of any team during that span.
One thing Columbus has done relatively well this season, though, is keep the puck out of the net, allowing 2.94 goals against per 60 minutes.
Head coach Rick Bowness also seems to have found something with the Cole Sillinger-Charlie Coyle-Mathieu Olivier line, as Coyle tallied four points in the 7-2 win over Colorado. That gives some hope to a rather spotty offense. In roughly 90 minutes together, the trio is generating an impressive 4.08 expected goals per 60.
Buffalo looked in control during a West Coast road trip last week, shutting out San Jose 2-0, scoring seven against Anaheim, and picking up a win in Los Angeles.
The Sharks and Ducks were particularly favorable matchups for a Buffalo team that has also struggled with offensive consistency this season. Both teams tend to allow plenty of space and play an open style, something Buffalo can exploit throughout its lineup.
Buffalo had a tougher time finding offense against Ottawa, falling 2-1 on Wednesday.
Regardless, these teams opened the season against each other in a game that featured nine total goals. Charlie Coyle had three assists in that matchup, and given both teams' recent inconsistency, I think the Sillinger-Coyle-Olivier line is worth targeting.
Coyle has recorded at least one point in eight of Columbus' 14 games this season, and at this price, I like him to add another one tonight.
Pick: Charlie Coyle 1+ Points (+100, DraftKings)
Ducks vs Flames Pick
Joel Quenneville tried to send a message by turning to AHL goalie Laurent Brossoit after Anaheim lost seven of eight. The Ducks have won three straight since, but the problem behind the change is far from fixed.
Anaheim allowed 11 goals in those three wins and has now gone over the total in six straight games, with every one of them reaching at least nine goals.
Lukas Dostal, Ville Husso or Brossoit, it doesn't seem to matter right now. Anaheim is going to allow goals. The Ducks score plenty at the other end, too, ranking fifth with 3.65 goals per 60.
Anaheim and Calgary have already split two meetings this season, both ending 4-2. The first saw 30 high-danger chances between the two sides, and the second produced nearly 8.5 expected goals.
Calgary is by no means a threat on offense, sitting 30th in both expected and actual goals for. But with how bad Anaheim has been defensively, I don't see an issue with the Flames contributing enough to push this over, especially with Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, and crew for the Ducks up front on the other side.
That makes this a pretty simple pick. Brossoit was in net for last night's 5-4 win in Edmonton, so Dostal could draw back in tonight, but I'm taking the over either way.
A few books had 6 available last night, but the total is now 6.5 everywhere. I'm still comfortable taking the over at near even money.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-106, FanDuel)
