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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Thursday, November 5, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Golden Knights vs Red Wings Over 5.5 Goals (-132, bet365 | Play to -137)
- Flyers ML (+125, FanDuel | Play to +120)
- Thomas Harley Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-110, DraftKings| Play to -125)
Golden Knights vs Red Wings Pick
The Red Wings have shown some respectable offensive upside of late, generating 3.30 xGF/60 and averaging 3.20 goals per game over their last ten matchups. Looking beyond the underlying numbers, I still believe that even without Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond are capable of driving solid results on the power play, while the team's offensive upside at even strength remains respectable.
Detroit catches the Golden Knights playing their third road game in four nights in this matchup, and should be able to use their rest advantage to help force some mistakes in key areas of the ice versus one of the NHL's stingier defensive sides.
As John Gibson exited Tuesday's matchup with a lower-body injury, Daniil Tarasov will likely get the start in goal. Tarasov is off to a fantastic start this season, but while goaltending is difficult to project, we don't want to overrate a small sample size, and I'd expect slightly below-average results the rest of the way based on his priors.
Though the Golden Knights generally don't rely on their offensive upside to win games, they still possess elite offensive talent capable of exposing a Red Wings side that has thus far exceeded expectations from a defensive standpoint.
At -132, there looks to be value backing this game to feature over 5.5 goals, as I'm not sold that it will play out as defensively as oddsmakers are currently expecting.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-132, bet365 | Play to -137)
Flyers vs Rangers Pick
My most recent edition of Daily Dangles on Tuesday night went two-for-three, with the slate's losing pick coming in on the Flyers to upset the Wild at +147. I'll always try to analyze my picks based on how the game played out versus the result, and I actually really didn't think the Flyers look was bad despite the fact that they spent most of the game trailing by numerous goals.
Every break seemed to go Minnesota's way in the matchup. Trevor Zegras hit the crossbar 28 seconds into the game, before the Wild quickly built a three-goal lead that included some more favorable breaks at the other end of the ice and finishing the majority of decent chances. Jesper Wallstedt was razor-sharp, and though the majority of Philadelphia's performance felt fine, they were unable to overcome some early miscues.
While the Flyers’ start to the season has been surprisingly dreadful, they do appear to be trending in the right direction over their last eight games. They have gone 4-2-2 in that span, with all four wins coming against likely playoff teams. One of their losses came in a difficult road back-to-back against the Capitals, while, as discussed, their performance in Tuesday’s loss to the Wild was more respectable than the final score suggested.
The Rangers have been far from dominant of late, as they are 4-5-1 throughout their last ten games, and have played to a 49.23% expected goal share during that span. While I do believe in their revamped defensive core, J.T. Miller's form skating as the team's second-line center remains a concern, and their overall offensive upside isn't entirely compelling.
A price of +125 looks to be long enough to back the Flyers, and if the Rangers do opt to start James Reimer, early Flyers backers would then gain a little extra value.
Pick: Flyers ML (+125, FanDuel | Play to +120)
Stars vs Blue Jackets Pick
Over the last ten games, Thomas Harley has averaged 4.3 shot attempts per game and a team-high 25:23 of time on ice. Though he's not produced much offense yet this season, the 25-year-old has hit the 15-goal mark twice in his career and is capable of chipping in offensively.
The Blue Jackets have allowed 27.24 shots against per game this season and 8.2 shots against per game to defenders over the last ten games.
Even if Miro Heiskanen (day-to-day) does play in Thursday's matchup, a price of -120 for Harley to record two shots looks solid, but if Heiskanen were to sit, a price of -120 becomes a slam dunk.
Pick: Thomas Harley Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-110, DraftKings| Play to -125)
