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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Sunday, November 8, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Panthers vs Bruins Under 6.5 (-125, DraftKings)
- Jets Moneyline (+118, FanDuel)
- Jack Hughes 4+ Shots on Goal (-135, DraftKings)
- Flyers vs Flames Under 5.5 (+104, FanDuel)
- Penguins vs Ducks Over 6.5 (-150, FanDuel)
Panthers vs Bruins Pick
Goals should be hard to come by in Boston this afternoon. The Bruins allow just 1.56 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the lowest rate in the league, per MoneyPuck, and Florida ranks third in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 at 2.11.
Much of that comes down to Jeremy Swayman, with 7.3 goals saved above expected. The Bruins’ offense has also cooled off some, generating just 2.8 expected goals per 60 over the last five games.
Florida hasn’t been finishing at even strength either. The Panthers are shooting 8.44% at 5-on-5, one of the 10 worst marks in the league, and Florida is on the second half of a back-to-back after losing 4-3 in Washington yesterday afternoon.
Florida does take and draw a lot of penalties, which could mean some extra power-play time, but that’s what the extra half-goal is for.
With Swayman in form and two of the league’s best 5-on-5 defenses on the ice, I like the under at 6.5.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-125, DraftKings)
Lightning vs Jets Pick
Tampa Bay finishes a stretch of three games in four nights in Winnipeg tonight, and that’s the main reason I’m on the Jets.
The Lightning beat Chicago at home on Thursday, then won 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota last night. That win leaned heavily on special teams. Three of Tampa Bay’s four goals came on the power play, including Nikita Kucherov’s overtime winner, and the Lightning scored just once at even strength.
Winnipeg, meanwhile, hasn’t played since beating Vancouver 6-2 at home on Thursday.
To be fair, Tampa Bay is the better team. The Lightning rank fourth in expected goal share at 56.85%, while the Jets are 24th at 47.18%. Winnipeg’s offense has also been a problem, ranking 26th in goals per 60 minutes.
Some of that is bad luck, though. Winnipeg’s 97.4 PDO (shooting% + save%) ranks 28th. The Jets haven’t confirmed a starter, but Stuart Skinner has held up fine in net, saving slightly more than expected across 12 games.
Dennis Hildeby was in net for the win in Minnesota, so Andrei Vasilevskiy should be fresh for this one. That helps Tampa Bay, but Vasilevskiy hasn’t been his usual self this season. He has an .886 save percentage and is slightly below expected through 12 games.
The Lightning are the better team, but this is the wrong night to pay a price on Tampa Bay. I’ll take Winnipeg at plus money.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+118, FanDuel)
Devils vs Maple Leafs Pick
Jack Hughes is on a shooting tear, and Toronto is a good matchup to keep it going. The Devils center has put at least five shots on goal in four straight games, including seven in a 5-2 win in Vegas on Oct. 30, and has cleared this number in five of his last six.
The production has followed the volume. Hughes has six goals and 11 points over that six-game stretch, capped by the overtime winner on Long Island last night, and New Jersey has won four straight.
The lone miss in that stretch came in a 5-2 loss in Colorado, when Hughes managed just two shots. The Avalanche are one of the better possession teams in the league, though, and Toronto isn’t in that category.
The Leafs allow 29.6 shots on goal per game, the sixth-most in the league, and Toronto ranks 24th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60. There should be plenty of room for New Jersey’s top line to get looks, and Hughes has been the one pulling the trigger.
Both teams played last night, so fatigue cuts both ways here. I’ll ride the hot hand and take Hughes to keep shooting.
Pick: Jack Hughes 4+ Shots on Goal (-135, DraftKings)
Flyers vs Flames Pick
Philadelphia and Calgary are two of the worst offenses in hockey, and I don’t see either one finding much tonight.
The Flyers rank last in goals per 60 minutes at 2.14, and the Flames are 29th at 2.47. It isn’t just bad luck, either. Calgary ranks 29th in expected goals for per 60, and Philadelphia is 31st.
When the chances do come, neither team has been able to finish them. The Flames are shooting 6.68% at 5-on-5, 31st in the league, and the Flyers are 30th at 7.48%. Calgary hasn’t shown signs of breaking out lately, scoring just 2.33 goals per 60 over the last six games.
Calgary’s net actually looks pretty solid either way too. Dustin Wolf has a .915 save percentage over his last four starts, and Devin Cooley was activated Thursday after missing a week with a lower-body injury. With Wolf in net Friday against Anaheim, Cooley could get the start tonight.
Cooley has a .914 save percentage and 2.2 goals saved above expected through seven games.
Philadelphia does allow plenty of chances, but the Flames haven’t been able to cash in on much of anything this season.
Still, neither team has scored consistently enough to scare me off plus money at 5.5. I’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+104, FanDuel)
Penguins vs Ducks Pick
We’re going back to the Anaheim over tonight. The Ducks beat Calgary 5-3 on Friday and have now gone over the total in seven straight games. Friday’s game had the fewest goals of that run, at eight.
Nothing about how Anaheim defends has changed. The Ducks allow 3.73 goals per 60 minutes, the third-highest rate in the league, and Anaheim’s .860 team save percentage on shots on goal ranks 31st. The Ducks score at the same 3.73 clip at the other end, helped by a 15.17% shooting percentage that trails only Edmonton.
Pittsburgh is a good opponent to keep this going. The Penguins won 5-2 in Los Angeles last night and are on the back half of a back-to-back, while Anaheim had Saturday off. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in 5-on-5 goals against per 60 at 3.05 and has allowed the second-most high-danger shots in all situations in the league, at 58. Anaheim isn’t far behind at 52.
The back-to-back should also mean Arturs Silovs gets the net for the Penguins. Silovs has an .876 save percentage through 11 games.
Pittsburgh generates plenty at the other end, too, ranking sixth in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 at 2.84.
The streak alone isn’t the reason, but two leaky defenses and a Pittsburgh team playing for the second straight night make it easy to ride the over one more time.
It’s a hefty price at -150, but I can’t help betting Ducks overs right now.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-150, FanDuel)
