The Ottawa Senators (1-2-0) and Buffalo Sabres (0-3-0) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Senators are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-110o / +110u). The Senators are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Sabres are -100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Senators vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Senators vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +200 | 6 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -245 | 6 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Senators vs. Sabres Spread: Senators -1.5 (+200), Sabres +1.5 (-245)
Senators vs. Sabres Over/Under: 6 (-110o / +110u)
Senators vs. Sabres Moneyline: Senators -120, Sabres +100
Senators vs. Sabres Preview
The Senators have started 1–2, giving up six goals to Florida and four more to Nashville. Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped all three of its games, scoring just five goals total but allowing at least three in each contest.
When two leaky defenses meet, structure often breaks down, and both sides press offensively to mask their own flaws — exactly the kind of environment that leads to overs cashing.
Ottawa will be without captain Brady Tkachuk, who is expected to miss at least four weeks with a hand injury. His absence hurts offensively, but the Senators still have enough forward depth to generate chances against a Sabres team that continues to struggle with defensive zone coverage and goaltending consistency.
Buffalo could get a spark from the return of Zach Benson, with Jordan Greenway and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen also nearing a comeback. Still, even with reinforcements, the Sabres’ blue line remains thin and prone to breakdowns against fast, transition-heavy teams like Ottawa.
Senators vs. Sabres Prediction
This game fits perfectly into Evan Abrams’ “Bad Defense Overs” system, which targets matchups between teams that allow over three goals per game and rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency. Through the early season, both Ottawa and Buffalo have struggled to keep pucks out of the net — a formula that tends to create wide-open, high-scoring hockey.
With both clubs ranking near the bottom defensively and showing no signs of tightening up, this matchup checks every box of the Bad Defense Overs system. Expect pace, pressure, and plenty of scoring chances.
Best Bet: Over 6 (-110, bet365)
