The Pittsburgh Penguins (34-18-15) and Carolina Hurricanes (42-18-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Hurricanes are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-100o / -121u). The Hurricanes are a -170 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +141 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6.5 -100o / -121u | +141 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 6.5 -100o / -121u | -170 |
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+143 ), Penguins +1.5 (-170)
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes Over/Under: 6.5 (-100o / -121u)
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes Moneyline: Penguins +141, Hurricanes -170
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Penguins vs. Hurricanes Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
Evgeni Malkin returned from his five-game suspension Wednesday, delivering two goals and an assist in Pittsburgh's impressive 7–2 win over Colorado. The suspension couldn't have come at a worse time, with Sidney Crosby already sidelined, but the Penguins found a way to stay afloat.
All things considered, a 5-3-3 record over its first 11 games out of the Olympic break without Crosby, missing Malkin for five games, and mixing in additional absences from Samuel Girard and Justin Brazeau is a stretch Pittsburgh will take without hesitation.
The numbers aren't great in some areas, and the play has been sloppy at times, but Pittsburgh has held its ground in an extremely close Eastern Conference.
The Blue Jackets are on a 10-game point streak and right on the Penguins' heels, sitting two points back but currently outside of the playoff picture. At the same time, a win tonight would pull Pittsburgh within five points of Carolina for the top spot in the East.
As I mentioned in my Colorado preview, the fourth line has been outstanding all season and is a large reason the Penguins have remained competitive this month. Blake Lizotte, Connor Dewar, and Noel Acciari are 16th in xGF this season and have allowed just 1.65 G/60.
Lizotte is expected to miss at least four weeks, but the good news is the line didn't skip a beat with him out against Colorado. With Elmer Soderblom sliding in on the left wing, it showed up big yet again, combining for two goals and four assists against the Avalanche.
The goalie-by-committee approach has worked well for Pittsburgh this season, and there's no reason to stray from it now. Arturs Silovs got the nod Monday, so Stuart Skinner should start tonight.
Skinner has handled Carolina well in two outings with the Penguins this year. Under a heavy workload, he's stopped 67 of 72 shots for a .931 SV%.
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is playing the second half of a back-to-back after a 5–1 loss to Columbus last night. It ran into some trouble on special teams, giving up two power-play goals in the first period and racked up 17 penalty minutes.
The Hurricanes are not an overly penalized team this season, but if any of that carries over tonight, Pittsburgh's power play ranks third in the league at 25.1%.
This is the first of two meetings between these teams this week, with a rematch set for Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. Both games carry significant weight at this stage of the season, with these teams sitting first and second in the Metro, and Carolina tied with Buffalo for the top spot in the East.
It’s easy to see why Carolina finds itself at the top. The Hurricanes rank second in expected goal share at 55.88% this season, with 3.51 xGF/60 and a stingy 2.78 xGA/60.
On top of that, Carolina controls the puck as well as anyone and spreads production around. Nikolaj Ehlers has been rolling lately with six goals and four assists over the last 10 games, one of four Hurricanes with at least 10 points in that stretch.
Frederik Andersen will almost certainly get the start after Brandon Bussi handled last night. Andersen is 4-1-0 over his last five starts, though he carries a .879 save percentage in those five games.
Carolina limits shots better than almost anyone, allowing the second fewest in the league, which appears to be the formula when Andersen is in net.
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Prediction
I'll keep this one pretty simple. Pittsburgh's last six games have all gone over, with an average of nearly eight total goals scored across those games.
I was impressed with how the Penguins played Monday and considered backing them on the moneyline, but Carolina has been excellent at home this year, with only Boston recording more wins on home ice.
That said, I might still sprinkle a little on Pittsburgh. They have some good mojo going and have scraped their way through this stretch of the season.
The moneyline has come down a bit, which I thought was mispriced at +145 yesterday, and that is another reason I am leaning toward the over.
The combination of Pittsburgh's power play and Carolina's ability to generate chances should be enough to push this past the number.
It also doesn’t hurt that Carolina should come out with some urgency, even on a back-to-back, after last night's performance. Plus, we’re getting even money.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)
