The Toronto Maple Leafs (32-32-14) and New York Islanders (42-31-5) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 6:45 p.m. EDT at UBS Arena in Belmont Park, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Islanders are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-100o / -117u). The Islanders are a -237 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +192 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 6.5 -100o / -117u | +192 |
| Islanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 6.5 -100o / -117u | -237 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Spread: Islanders -1.5 (+108 ), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-130)
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Over/Under: 6.5 (-100o / -117u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Moneyline: Maple Leafs +192, Islanders -237
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
Such a bright spotlight with such poor results.
That has been the motto of the Maple Leafs all season. Ever since the departure of Mitch Marner, this team has fallen off dramatically – counting the days until the offseason.
Last night, Toronto got its doors blown off against the Capitals with a 4-0 loss at home, and now it heads across the border to play the Islanders.
The Leafs are pretty hit-or-miss on back-to-backs, going 7-7 on the second game, but they’re 1-2-1 when playing a game at home first, then traveling for a game the next day.
As I’ve mentioned before, this is a pretty pathetic team, and the 5-on-5 numbers have shown. Toronto is posting second-worst expected goals numbers over the past three weeks, and its xGA is fourth-worst.
I’ll be curious what happens in net for tonight’s game since Anthony Stolarz started last night, but had to be helped off the ice after a routine save early on – forcing Joseph Woll to play the duration.
This may be a signal that Dennis Hildeby gets the nod, because in a meaningless game for Toronto, I don’t think it plays Woll on a back-to-back.
New York Islanders
Tonight marks the first game of the Peter DeBoer era on Long Island, and what a time to do so.
There are only four games left in the Islanders' season, and at a time when the Isles were playing some questionable hockey at a pivotal point in the playoff race, they’ve squandered. Now, they just sit three points out of the playoffs behind the Flyers and Senators, both of whom are playing exceptionally well.
The notion of a “new-coach boost” is real, but I wonder how impactful that may be when these games hold so much weight.
New York hasn’t been a very good 5-on-5 team all season long and has mostly been leaning on goaltender Ilya Sorokin to save the day. However, you can tell that Sorokin is losing steam as the season wears on, which explains the team’s four-game losing streak.
What the Islanders do have working for them, though, is this four-day break where the team can get to know DeBoer a little better, before they finish the season with the gauntlet of Ottawa, Montreal and Carolina.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction
As low as I am on the Islanders this season, I’m even lower on the Maple Leafs. And not just that, you have to factor in the new coach luck with DeBoer coming in.
DeBoer has taken over a team midseason once in his coaching career, and he won that first game with the Golden Knights in 2020.
New York is the heavy favorite to win on the moneyline, with odds at -245, but its puck line is at +110.
When moneyline odds are that distinct, it signals to me that the books are confident that this will be a rout. This explains why the puck line odds are leaning towards evening out.
Ninety percent of the time, puck line odds aren’t usually digestible for the favorite. Usually, you’ll see something that is on the lines of +170 or higher, but here, a +110 option is a very solid move.
I’m taking the Islanders here to win convincingly.
Pick: New York Islanders -1.5 (+110)
