The Washington Capitals (35-28-9) and Utah Mammoth (37-29-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Mammoth are priced at +164 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (-116o/-142u). The Mammoth are a -154 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are +128 pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Capitals vs. Mammoth predictions and NHL picks.
Capitals vs. Mammoth Odds, Pick
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 6.5 116o / -142u | +128 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 6.5 116o / -142u | -154 |
- Capitals vs. Mammoth Spread: +1.5 (-205), -1.5 (+164)
- Capitals vs. Mammoth Over/Under: 6.5 (-116o / -142u)
- Capitals vs. Mammoth Moneyline: Capitals +128, Mammoth -154
Capitals vs. Mammoth Preview
Washington Capitals
The last two times that I have previewed Capitals games (March 14 versus Boston and March 22 versus Colorado) for Action Network, the picks have been on the under, with the general gist of the write-ups being why Washington seemed likely to play a lot of low-scoring games down the stretch.
That take has proven to be quite accurate to this point, as both of those games came in under the total, and the last five Capitals games have averaged 4.2 combined goals.
Though their process on controlled setups in the offensive zone still looks fairly strong, the Capitals do not have any skaters looking overly dynamic offensively and aren't creating many ultra-threatening chances off the rush. A portion of the fan base has started to sour on 2024-25 Jack Adams winner Spencer Carbery, and perhaps to some extent it is true that the league has figured out his offense, but the greater issue seems to come down to personnel.
The Capitals do not have any skaters looking overly dynamic offensively that can be expected to truly open an opposing defense up. Since the Olympic break, Washington has generated 3.69 xGF/60 and scored on just 9.17% of shots on goal. Those marks scream positive regression offensively, which is one reason we continue to see higher totals, as oddsmakers' models likely view Washington's offense as underrated.
The eye test suggests the team's average even-strength scoring chance of late is not as threatening as the underlying numbers suggest, though, and the power play remains far too static and predictable and has been highly ineffective.
While Washington's offense continues to sputter, goaltender Logan Thompson has remained in incredible form and would likely be in the Vezina conversation if he were getting a little more offensive support. Thompson ranks second in the NHL with a +28.6 GSAx rating and holds a .915 save percentage throughout 50 appearances.
Thompson has started five straight games, so it is possible that the Capitals will finally start backup Charlie Lindgren in this matchup, with missing the playoffs now close to a foregone conclusion.
For that reason, I'd recommend waiting to lock in any bets on the under or the Capitals to win until Washington confirms its netminder, as if it's Lindgren, the Capitals will likely move into the +135 range, with the total of 6 becoming more heavily juiced to the over.
Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth will be looking to respond from a disappointing 5-2 loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday, in a game where they were heavily outplayed and did not generate many high-quality scoring chances. Per NaturalStatTrick, Utah generated only 2.08 expected goals for and eight high-danger scoring chances, and those marks did seem to be an accurate depiction of the game.
The Oilers have been in sneaky-good form defensively since the Olympic break, which we touched on in our breakdown of that game picking Edmonton to win, but it was still a disappointing offensive performance from a Mammoth side that has looked a little flat offensively of late.
In 15 games since the restart, Utah has generated only 3.39 xGF/60 but is still above water in terms of the overall run of play, having allowed only 3.22 xGA/60. We have seen a lot of teams in playoff contention trend towards a lower-event style of play down the stretch, and head coach Andre Tourigny's side can certainly be placed into that cohort.
A surprising and meaningful concern for Utah has been the recent play of second-line center Logan Cooley, who has had two points over the last nine games. Cooley has a drastically higher ceiling than his recent production suggests, but Utah becomes a much easier team to check if only the top line, led by Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, is producing effectively.
Karel Vejmelka has been rock-solid in goal with a +9.2 GSAx rating and a .897 save percentage across 55 games played this season and is expected to get the nod Thursday.
Capitals vs. Mammoth Prediction
It seems unlikely that the Capitals' offense will offer a meaningful bounce-back the rest of the way, but the team is still competing respectably defensively and continues to benefit from a Vezina-caliber goaltender in Thompson. Though the metrics suggest the Capitals are playing a more high-event style than the recent scorelines suggest, I'm not sold the totals are due to rise as much as those numbers suggest.
I'm particularly surprised to see a total of six on this Capitals game, as Utah has not been generating a lot offensively of late but has been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season and has a strong netminder of its own in Vejmelka.
As it does seem possible the Caps will start Lindgren in this matchup, I'm going to wait until after the morning skate to lock in bets on the under, but if it is Thompson vs. Vejmelka, there looks to be value in betting the game to come in under six goals at -110.
Pick: Under 6
