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With early voting finished for the Lone Star State, Democratic candidate James Talarico has achieved a massive gap over Republican opponent Ken Paxton. Talarico now holds a record 76% lead on Kalshi, with less than 36 hours until voting ends.
Here's what you need to know about the Texas Senate race. Be sure to use Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to score $55 after trading $25.
Talarico’s Odds Reach a Record 76% as Early Voting Ends
As of November 2, Kalshi has Talarico — one of Texas' 150 state representatives — at a record 76%. Paxton — Texas' attorney general — sits at 24%, down from 81% when the contract opened in December 2024. Polymarket has Talarico at 75%.
Talarico's campaign supports a $15 minimum wage, expanded family tax credits, and increased taxes on the wealthy and corporations. The Democratic candidate is targeting political corruption, looking to ban super and corporate PACs, crack down on gerrymandering, and eliminate congressional stock trading.
Paxton, meanwhile, has campaigned to secure the border, complete the border wall and assist in deportation efforts. His plan proposes tax reductions for health and home purchases, and Paxton supports a doubled Child Tax Credit and permanent Trump Accounts.
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Texas Senate Polls: CNN, ActiVote and Texas Southern
While predictions make it look like Talarico has the race won, polls tell a more nuanced story. CNN/SSRS polls from October 20-27 had Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%, well within striking distance. ActiVote has Talarico up only 4.2% while Texas Southern puts the race in his favor 49–47%. Only the CNN lead exceeded the margin of error.
If you want to read more about politics and elections, visit Prediction Proand read our midterms predictions.
More Than 6 million Texans Voted Early: What the Data Shows
Early voting in Texas ended on Friday, with more than 7.7 million Texans (40% of 18.8 million registered) choosing early action, per NBC's TargetSmart model. Republican consultant Derek Ryan called the massive turnout "new territory," with primary-history Democrats rivaling Republican voters.
What Would Have to Happen for Paxton to Win
The majority of polls have Paxton within the margin of error, meaning there is a good chance for this race to swing either way.
One factor which may well decide the race is the leanings of Hispanic voters. In 2022, a high percentage of Hispanic voters across southern Texas helped Trump win the day — will similar numbers show up for Paxton in 2024?
Final-day Checklist: What to Check Before Trading Texas
Election polls will fluctuate all the way up until voting occurs. But be careful: Texas has no party registration, so turnout shows only primary history. If a voter's political leanings have changed since the last time around, there is no way to know until the vote is counted.
