The U.S. economy continues to grow, although the actual pace varies among analysts as it faces a range of domestic and external challenges. Official estimate data for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be advanced on February 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), marking a key moment for gauges of economic momentum.
If you want to get in on the action and make a GDP growth estimate for Q4 2025, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
US GDP Growth in Q4 2025
Following a weak start to the year, real gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% in Q1 2025 before rebounding to 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3.
On Kalshi, the broad consensus among traders is that Q4 growth will exceed the neutral range of -0.5% to 2.5%, with contracts implying roughly even odds (around 50/50) that growth will top 3%. Gains above 3.5% carry about a 33% likelihood.
Several forces could temper growth, including the effects of the longest government shutdown in history (a 43-day hiatus spanning October and November), ongoing tariff frictions, and volatility in energy prices. These factors have injected uncertainty into headline economic data releases.
With contracts trending downward, growth above 3.5% carries roughly a 33% probability, while more optimistic forecasts above 4% are in clear decline.
One argument supporting those more bullish positions comes from the GDPNow model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which in its latest update projects growth of 3.7%, down from the 4.2% estimate published in early February.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
