President Donald Trump's escalating campaign to acquire Greenland faces steep odds according to prediction markets, with Kalshi traders pricing the U.S. acquisition of any part of the Arctic territory before January 1, 2027, at just 21 cents (21% probability).
The market data reveals significant skepticism among traders, with the highest-volume contract showing only a 43% chance, while more aggressive scenarios trade for as low as 7 cents. Over 2.2 million contracts have been traded on the most active market, indicating intense interest despite the low odds of success.
You can trade on this and other events, as well as thousands of other markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Will the US Take Over Greenland?
Trump's pressure campaign has intensified dramatically in recent days, with the president announcing 10% tariffs on eight NATO allies — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland — after they deployed small military contingents to Greenland for exercises. The tariffs are set to escalate to 25% by June 1 if no deal is reached.
Despite Trump's aggressive rhetoric — including refusing to rule out military force — prediction markets suggest traders view the campaign as largely political theater unlikely to result in actual territorial transfer within the current timeframe.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
