Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chairman faces a mixed reception on prediction markets, with Kalshi traders showing varied confidence levels across different confirmation scenarios, including one market pricing his chances at $0.88 (88% probability) and another at just $0.28 (28% probability).
The prediction market data reveals a complex betting landscape around Trump's Fed pick, with the highest-confidence market showing $0.88 bid prices (88% chance) backed by over 31,000 contracts in volume, while a more pessimistic market trades at $0.04 (4% probability) with massive volume of nearly 68,000 contracts. The wide range suggests significant uncertainty about different confirmation pathways or timing scenarios.
If you want to get in on the action, you can trade on this and other political events, as well as thousands of other markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
When Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Former Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn offered strong support for the nomination during a Sunday appearance on "Face the Nation," calling Warsh "very highly qualified" and predicting he will "take the Fed back to its traditional norms." Cohn emphasized the nation's fortune in having Warsh as the nominee, lending credibility to Trump's assertion that his pick will "go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best."
At 55, Warsh brings previous Federal Reserve experience, having served on the Fed board of governors from 2006 to 2011, making him notably young during his initial tenure. That background could prove crucial during Senate confirmation hearings, as his familiarity with Fed operations may ease concerns about his readiness for the top role.
The market fragmentation across six different Kalshi contracts — ranging from the 4% scenario to the 88% probability outcome — suggests traders are pricing in multiple variables that could affect confirmation timing and success. With open interest exceeding 24,000 contracts on the highest-probability market, significant money is backing Warsh's eventual confirmation, though the May 1, 2026 deadline adds temporal pressure to the confirmation process that appears to be factoring into trader calculations.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
