In the intersection of urban policy and speculative finance, a question has caught the attention of New York City residents and investors across the country alike. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, users can now trade on the likelihood of:"Will New York City open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?"
As of the time of publication, the market reflects a cautious but notable optimism, with the "Yes" odds fluctuating as the city’s political landscape shifts following the 2025 election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
If you're interested in trading on whether NYC will open a city-owned grocery store before 2028, use the Kalshi promo code for a $10 new-user offer:
Will NYC Open a City-Owned Grocery Store Before 2028? Live Odds at Kalshi
Check out these live odds from Kalshi for whether NYC will open a city-owned grocery store before 2028:
The Vision: A "Public Option" for Food
Mayor Mamdani made the establishment of city-owned grocery stores a cornerstone of his "affordability" platform. His argument is rooted in the idea that access to fresh, affordable food is a fundamental right that the private market sometimes fails to provide, particularly in "food deserts"—neighborhoods where residents lack access to full-service supermarkets.
How it would work
Mamdani’s plan envisions a network of municipal stores that bypass the traditional profit-driven retail model. To accomplish this, his administration has outlined several key strategies:
Eliminating Overhead: By utilizing city-owned real estate, these stores would not have to pay rent or property taxes, which are two of the largest expenses for private grocers in NYC.
Wholesale Sourcing: The city would buy goods at wholesale prices and sell them to residents at cost (or with a minimal markup), centralizing warehousing and distribution to leverage economies of scale.
Redirecting Subsidies: Instead of providing tax breaks to private developers to attract supermarkets, the administration proposes redirecting those funds—estimated at roughly $60 million for a pilot program—directly into the municipal operation.
Likely obstacles
Despite the Mayor's enthusiasm, the path to opening a store by 2028 is steep, which explains the active trading on prediction market apps like Kalshi. Critics and skeptics point to several hurdles:
Market Competition: Owners of bodegas and private supermarkets argue that a taxpayer-subsidized "city store" would create an uneven playing field, potentially driving local small businesses out of work.
Operational Complexity: Running a grocery chain involves complex logistics, from spoilage management to supply chain negotiations—tasks the city government does not currently have the infrastructure to handle.
Ideological and Systemic Concerns: Critics have characterized the proposal as an overreach into a traditionally capitalist domain, warning that it mirrors "socialist" central planning. Opponents point to historical examples of state-run enterprises in other countries that suffered from chronic inefficiencies, long lines, and a lack of responsiveness to consumer demand. They argue that replacing market-driven profit motives with bureaucratic oversight could lead to a "Soviet-style" system that is unsustainable without endless taxpayer subsidies.
Legislative Approval: While Mamdani holds the mayoralty, the plan requires significant cooperation from the City Council and potentially state-level adjustments to corporate and individual tax rates to secure long-term funding.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: A Free Groceries Showdown
Kalshi and Polymarket both offer odds on whether NYC will open a city-owned grocery store. But the rivalry between these two prediction market apps runs deep and has bled into real-life campaigns.
In early February 2026, Kalshi made a nod to the ongoing political discussions in NYC by offering residents up to $50 in free groceries at Westside Market.
Polymarket retorted with a similar marketing stunt—the operator is running its own pop-up, calling it "New York's first free grocery market." It'll be open for 5 days starting Feb. 12 at noon.
Of course, Polymarket's free grocery store won't force the Kalshi question to resolve to "Yes" since it's owned by Polymarket rather than the city.
At the time of publication, Kalshi has seen a trading volume of over $22,000 on the question of whether NYC will have a city-owned grocery store by 2028. Stay tuned for the event settlement, which Kalshi will resolve by consulting sources such as The New York Times and the AP.
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
