A few weeks ago, asking "who signs the U.S.-Iran deal?" would have sounded like a trick question. There wasn't a deal. Now there's a document, a handful of signatures already on it, and a Polymarket page tracking which name, if any, comes next.
The market in question, "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?", launched on Polymarket on June 11, 2026, and has already pulled in over $900,000 in trading activity.
What Triggered the Spike
Is the war ending? The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran broke out in late February 2026 and dragged on for more than 100 days before the two governments landed on a 14-point framework known as the Memorandum of Understanding, or MoU.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the deal includes a complete and immediate cessation of military actions across every front, explicitly highlighting Lebanon, and President Trump described the agreement as complete around the same time.
Things moved fast from there.
Sharif announced that the U.S. and Iran had electronically signed the peace agreement, clearing the way for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, with a separate, more formal signing ceremony expected to follow. He called it the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" and said it would take effect immediately, with Iran reopening the strait and the U.S. lifting its naval blockade as first steps. President Trump went on to sign the document in person at the Palace of Versailles during a G7 dinner, and it was later signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as well.
That burst of activity, condensed into about a week, is what sent trading volume on the Polymarket page climbing. Every time a new name got attached to the deal, the odds moved.
Who's Actually on the List
The market has 20 possible outcomes, but a few names matter most for understanding the picture:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Iran's parliament speaker and a lead negotiator throughout the talks. Before Pezeshkian signed personally, Ghalibaf was the name most traders expected to put pen to paper on Iran's side.
Abbas Araghchi: Iran's top diplomat in the negotiating room for most of the process.
Shehbaz Sharif: Pakistan's prime minister, who wasn't a party to the deal but acted as a mediator and, per his own statement, endorsed the document in that capacity. That's enough to count under the market's rules, which allow a listed person to sign "on behalf of… a third-party state… or any other party to the agreement."
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani: Qatar's ruling emir, whose country has been one of the two main go-betweens in the talks, alongside Pakistan.
Marco Rubio: listed as a possible U.S. signatory, though Trump signing personally has made that path less likely.
The document has already been signed by: President Donald J. Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian.
So does the market need more signatures to settle, or is it basically done?
The market doesn't require every listed name to sign: each outcome is its own separate question, resolving independently based on whether that specific person signs by July 31, 2026.
