Twenty-five days have passed since the World Cup officially kicked off. As the last games of the Round of 16 unfold, traders at Kalshi are trying to predict the final matchup. The question is simple: Which two teams will face each other on July 19 at MetLife Stadium?
Currently, one side of the bracket appears to be locked in, as one of the potential contenders seems to be inevitable. However, soccer is an unpredictable game, and there might be surprises in store at the “World Cup Final Matchup” market.
Kalshi Odds
France vs Argentina: A Rematch for the Ages
Rather than just betting on a single country to lift the trophy, this contract allows users to purchase shares in the exact combination of the final two teams that will stand on the pitch on July 19.
Currently, traders believe that France’s presence in the final is near certain, as the top three positions on this market include Kylian Mbappe’s team. While the French still have to play against a highly dynamic and powerful Moroccan side, they are the clear favorite to reach the final in a bracket that includes both Portugal and Spain.
The most favored combination is France vs Argentina, a contract that offers a direct rematch of the legendary 2022 final. Traders backing this line are heavily factoring in path stability. Lionel Messi's Argentina survived an overtime scare against Cape Verde but remains the dominant anchor of the lower bracket, as they will face Egypt on Tuesday, and then potentially Colombia, England or Norway in the quarterfinals and semis.
All of those matchups are extremely difficult challenges, but in every one of those scenarios Argentina will enter the pitch as the favorite. Such is the privilege and the burden that comes with having the greatest player ever in your roster.
The Classic Rivalry and the Historic Upset
Trading as the second-best option on the board is the France vs England matchup. Since the Europeans managed to survive Mexico, a considerable number of traders have chosen Harry Kane’s side as a major candidate to reach the finals for the first time in 60 years. The excellent level displayed by Kane and Jude Bellingham is the primary driving force behind this contract. If those players can keep up the pace, which is challenging both physically and mentally, then England has a concrete shot at facing Mbappe in a few weeks.
Possibly the wild card on the board is the third-most-favored position, a final between France and Norway. The Norwegians have already pulled off the single biggest upset of the World Cup by sending Brazil back home. However, to actually reach the finals, Erling Haaland’s team would have to repeat that monumental feat two more times, starting with England in the Quarterfinals and potentially facing Argentina down the road.
The France vs Norway scenario seems highly unlikely, but retail traders are riding the Haaland hype wave after his massive brace against Brazil. He is probably the greatest striker on the planet, but carrying his national team to the final remains a steep uphill climb, even for the Norwegian maestro.
The Contrarian Take and Market Volatility
The first bracket without France is positioned in fourth place on the trading board. The Spain vs Argentina option experienced an early surge but has since declined, mainly due to Spain's underwhelming performances and a tougher bracket to reach the final.
The closing of the initial knockout rounds completely shattered several baseline pricing grids. The most notable tectonic shift came when Norway pulled off a historic 2-1 upset over five-time champions Brazil, powered by an Erling Haaland brace. Simultaneously, England survived a grueling 3-2 thriller against Mexico at the Azteca, despite a devastating red card handed to Jude Bellingham. These results have heavily consolidated the upper brackets of the contract.
However, the most decisive development for this market will occur on July 9, when France and Morocco face off for a spot among the top four teams in the competition. While the Atlas Lions enter the pitch as the clear underdogs, they also represent the biggest tactical threat the French squad has faced yet. It will be a definitive trial by fire that could flip this market upside down.
