Premier League Week 27 Betting Preview and Picks
The Premier League title race got a little bit closer after Manchester City drew 1-1 at Burnley last week, but they still hold a comfortable 13-point lead at the top over Manchester United. Once again City are massive -450 favorites to win at home this weekend against Leicester City, while Manchester United (-150) have a slightly tougher matchup at Newcastle. The marquee matchup is the North London Derby between Tottenham and Arsenal (Saturday 7:30 am ET) as they battle for the 4th/5th positions in the league table. Although I don’t have official value plays on these three matches, there are three others I’m looking at including Southampton/Liverpool and Huddersfield/Bournemouth.
Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, biggest payouts and title odds along with value plays and market analysis for Week 27.
Week 26 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+3.73 units)
Away 1 of 10 (-7.21 units)
Draw 4 of 10 (+6.34 units)
Another miserable week for road teams, winning just one of the 10 matches last weekend. The lone victory was Southampton (+176) who came back to beat West Brom 3-2 after going down 1-0 early.
Home 115 of 260 (+1.37 units)
Away 72 of 260 (-47.56 units)
Draw 73 of 260 (+31.16 units)
Betting on draws continues to be profitable this season (+31.16 units) after another successful Week 26. Road teams continue to falter, down nearly 50 units on the entire season.
Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool in Week 24
Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea in Week 25
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
Five of the Top-9 Premier League payouts have been outright wins against Chelsea: Burnley +1125, Bournemouth +911, Crystal Palace +695, West Ham +655, Watford +595.
Fading Chelsea on the moneyline this year has gone 6-20 for +21.5 units earned. West Brom (+823) will play at Chelsea in the final game of Week 27 (Monday 2:45 pm ET).
Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -10000 (69 points)
Manchester United +6600 (56 points)
Liverpool +15000 (51 points)
Chelsea +25000 (50 points)
Tottenham +25000 (49 points)
Before getting to the value plays, let’s look at what’s happening for Tottenham/Arsenal. Tottenham are the hosts but are playing at Wembley Stadium for home matches this season while a new venue is being constructed, and Arsenal have had plenty of success there with a nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Around the betting market, Arsenal (+290) have received good support with 40% of moneyline tickets, while another 40% have taken Tottenham (+100) to win. With a revamped lineup and no midweek match like Spurs, it makes sense that bettors are grabbing a juicy price on Arsenal. Despite the high number of tickets on the Gunners, we’ve actually seen their odds drift at most books, so the market doesn’t seem to be worried. To me, this indicates some sharp money has taken Tottenham or books are holding steady for future Tottenham money. The draw is being offered at +277 odds, and while it’s not the most appealing for most bettors, it’s certainly worth a look.
Burnley at Swansea (Saturday 10 am ET)
Swansea have kept racking up points over the last few matches and have crawled out of the cellar of the Premier League. Even though the Swans have been on a roll lately, public bettors have gravitated toward road dogs Burnley (+243) in this one. Similar to Tottenham/Arsenal, books don’t seem to be worried about the support on the road team, as odds have moved toward Swansea a little bit since opening. This match fits the 40% ROI system we’ve been following all year, taking draws with small moneylines (+205) and low totals (2). Juice is also heavily toward the under, so this total will not be going up to 2.25 or 2.5 either. I’ll be hoping for a 0-0 or 1-1 sleeper.
Bournemouth at Huddersfield (Sunday 7 am ET)
Huddersfield enter as +250 home underdogs against Bournemouth, and have been shutout three consecutive league matches. They’re also tied with Swansea for fewest goals in the league this year at 19. However, they managed to score three extra time goals in their FA Cup fixture this week so they’ve at least seen the ball hit the back of the net lately. While I wouldn’t necessarily bet Huddersfield just because of the desperation factor, it is encouraging to know that teams on three consecutive shutouts have gone 6-8 for +12.95 units this season (data via Bet Labs). You’re also selling high on Bournemouth in this match, as they’ve been red-hot with four wins and three draws since their last loss in December to Manchester City. These are three crucial points for Huddersfield, and the early start on Sunday should provide a boost for the home squad as well. I’d recommend taking them on the goal line (+0.5 at -155 odds), or bet them on the moneyline to win (+225) and draw (+220). It’s really a matter of whether you want to risk two units to make a little more compared to risking one unit.
Liverpool at Southampton (Sunday 11 am ET)
In the late match on Sunday, Liverpool travel to Southampton for a tricky encounter. At short moneyline odds of -125, it’s no surprise that more than 80% of bettors have jumped on Liverpool to take all three points. The line has come down since opening though, from -135 at Pinnacle and -140 at Bookmaker. On paper this looks like an easy pick on Liverpool, but I’m strictly fading the public and following the line movement with Southampton. It’s an ugly selection but sometimes that’s what betting is all about, so I’m going with Southampton +0.5 goals at +115 odds. I do think the line could rise again over the weekend, so you should be all right waiting for better odds.
Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
82% on Liverpool (-125) at Southampton
71% on Everton (+128) vs. Crystal Palace
58% on Burnley (+243) at Swansea
Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
West Brom (+1308 to +823) at Chelsea
Everton (+146 to +128) vs. Crystal Palace
Bournemouth (+165 to +148) at Huddersfield
Watford (+235 to +210) at West Ham
Value Plays (30-35 season record, +28.41 units), All plays risk 1 unit
Huddersfield +0.5 goals (-155) vs. Bournemouth
Swansea/Burnley Draw +205
Southampton +0.5 goals (+115) vs. Liverpool
As always, you can track all the latest Premier League line moves, betting percentages, market data and more with a Sports Insights Pro membership.