Best Bets Today | Celta Vigo vs Girona, Lazio vs Napoli, More (Sunday, Jan. 28)
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Alessio Zerbin.
The Premier League has the weekend off due to the FA Cup fourth round matches, while the rest of Europe's top five leagues are in full swing. Bayern's loss to Werder Bremen combined with Bayer Leverkusen's last minute winner against RB Leipzig means that Leverkusen have a four point lead on Bayern in the Bundesliga. Both are heavy favorites this weekend against Gladbach and Augsburg, respectively. Borussia Dortmund host Bochum as they attempt to chase down Leipzig and Stuttgart for the Champions League places.
In Italy, Inter Milan won the Supercoppa with a last minute winner against Napoli in Riyadh on Monday, and they return to Serie A action with a road trip to Fiorentina. Napoli visit Lazio and will be out for revenge after losing to Lazio earlier this season at home.
There are 36 matches scheduled across the top four non-Premier League European leagues. Here are my three best bets today, including Celta Vigo vs Girona and Lazio vs Napoli.
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Best Bets Today
| Celta Vigo Odds | +180 |
| Girona Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
It's pretty remarkable that the first-placed team in La Liga is lined close to a pick'em on the road against 16th-placed Celta Vigo. The market is well aware that the true talent and underlying performances of these two teams are much closer than the league table suggests. Girona have run really hot at this point in the season and there remains major questions about their defensive ability in transition. Celta have been highly competitive with the top sides in Spain this year and been consistently dangerous on the break and in transition. As a result, their attack is quite undervalued in this home spot against Girona.
Celta have an extra day of rest after both lost in the Copa del Rey during the midweek. They rank ninth in xG per 90 created, sixth in shots per match and 10th in final third to box entry conversion rate. Girona's defense isn't even close to title winning or even top four quality. They rank 15th in non-penalty xG allowed per match, there's little ball winning in midfield and they rank 17th in set piece defense.
Celta's attack is averaging just 1.0 xG per match away from home, but Rafa Benitez's side is producing north of 1.5 xG per match when on home soil. Back the Celta attack to expose the overvalued Girona defense.
Pick: Celta Vigo Team Total Over 1.5 (+135)
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| Dortmund Odds | -275 |
| Bochum Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
We've crossed the halfway point of the season and Dortmund's defense is 11th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed per match. The market has consistently overvalued Dortmund this season, mostly because it hasn't correctly accounted for how bad they are at chance and goal prevention. It's not just the xG and goals allowed either.
Dortmund are bottom half in set piece defense, bottom five in transition defense and sixth-worst in box entries allowed. The defense has overperformed its xG allowed because of elite shot-stopping from Gregor Kobel in goal, but the defense is fully mid-table. Even last week against Köln, Dortmund conceded 1.3 xGA against the worst attacking outfit in Germany.
Now facing a Bochum side that is considerably more open away from home, the total is too low at 3.5. Bochum are conceding more than two xG per match on their travels, but their transition and direct attack has taken a huge step forward this season. This should be a textbook Bundesliga basketball style match, and Dortmund even freshened up their attack with the additions of Jadon Sancho and Ian Maatsen from Manchester United and Chelsea last week.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+100 or better)
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| Lazio Odds | +125 |
| Napoli Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +125 / -163 |
Napoli are at the absolute floor of their price here, lined as a true even on a neutral with Lazio. This is a great buy low spot.
The primary regression for Napoli and bad luck has come in attack. For all of their issues at times, they're still producing the most shots per match in Italy and the most shots on goal. They're second only to Inter in xG per 90. The only problem has been the actual finishing. Napoli have an above-average mean shot distance and yet have the second-lowest goals per shot rate in the Italian top flight.
They'll be without Victor Osimhen and Andre-Frank Zambo-Anguissa due to AFCON again, but Napoli still have considerably better underlying metrics than Lazio across the board. Lazio's attack has dropped off across the board this season, mostly because Ciro Immobile's shot and goal production has dried up a bit as he's aged.
Lazio rank in the bottom five in Serie A in shots per match, while Napoli remain an elite shot-producing attack overall. If you weigh just the last 10 matches heavily, then you can get to this price with Lazio as a short home favorite. The sample of the 1.5 years before that would suggest Napoli should be no worse than a tossup on Sunday.
Pick: Napoli +0.25 (-110)
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