Best Bets Today | RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen, Udinese vs AC Milan & More
Stuart Franklin/Getty. Pictured: Benjamin Sesko.
The Premier League has a shortened weekend slate for the second consecutive weekend as there will be just five matches in England's top division. While the PL has only half the clubs in action, there are nearly full slates across the rest of Europe's top five leagues. All 20 La Liga teams and all 18 Bundesliga teams will play this weekend, as well as most of Serie A (Inter, Lazio, Napoli and Fiorentina excluded).
Those four played semifinals in the Italian Supercup on Thursday and Friday in Riyadh, while the race for the Scudetto continues without them in Italy. Here are my three best bets from across the European continent this weekend.
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Best Bets Today
| RB Leipzig Odds | +140 |
| Leverkusen Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Bayer Leverkusen have still not lost a match in any competition this year, but there are signs that the market is starting to overvalue them. Xabi Alonso's side began the season with eight consecutive covers against the spread in the Bundesliga and they are now under .500 on the asian handicap spread in the last nine matches. Leverkusen dropped points against Dortmund and Stuttgart as an overvalued favorite and needed a last minute winner to beat middling Augsburg last weekend.
With Leverkusen playing without Victor Boniface due to Africa's Cup of Nations, Leipzig are poised to pick them off on Saturday in the highlight match of the nine game Bundesliga slate. RB Leipzig had a lot of offseason turnover, losing three of their most important players early in the window. The early season data on Leipzig saw them running as good as any team in Europe. The underlying numbers were quite mediocre but Leipzig kept winning matches. The market consistently steamed against them after inflated opening prices on them. Since then, the opposite has happened
They've dropped points in four of their last eight matches in Germany, but the underlying statistical profile has improved considerably in that time frame. After a period of hot finishing, Leipzig were overvalued. Now, this is a good spot and time to potentially buy them. For the entire season, Leipzig's underlying xG difference per 90 is barely behind Leverkusen overall.
Leipzig have one of the most efficient set piece attacks in Germany, an area where Leverkusen's defense lags considerably behind. Leverkusen have produced more xG per 90, but it's also Leipzig that has the better defensive metrics when you remove penalties and red card effects. It's time to sell Leverkusen at the peak as Leipzig should be a bigger favorite to hand Die Werkself their first defeat of the year.
Pick: RB Leipzig – Draw No Bet (-115)
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| Udinese Odds | +300 |
| AC Milan Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
For the second consecutive week, I'm backing Udinese as an underdog in this column. Udinese have 12 draws, which is two more than every other team in Europe’s top five leagues. They're in the midst of a real Ted Lasso season two run at AFC Richmond, and they're doing it with the lowest possession rate in Serie A. When Udinese have faced teams below them in the talent, they've struggled to separate and turns draws into wins. But rarely has this mid-table side been overmatched by superior clubs either.
Goalscoring and xG per shot is way down across the board in Italy this season, to the point where Udinese's 1.15 xG per 90 is actually solidly in the mid-table for attacking quality. They've conceded by far the most penalties in the Italian top flight, but their n0n-penalty xGA is 1.00. If you remove red cards and penalties from the sample, Milan have a +0.36 xG difference, which isn't all that much better than Udinese at +0.12.
Once you factor in home field advantage, this game should be lined close to a toss-up. Instead, Milan are an overvalued road favorite because they have enjoyed an excellent run of hot finishing in attack. Milan have seen underlying decline in shot production from both Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud this season and that's been accompanied by the worst defensive metrics they've had under Stefano Pioli. While nearly every defense in Serie A has improved year over year, Milan are one of the few trending in the wrong direction and it makes them vulnerable as a road favorite.
Pick: Udinese +0.5 (-110)
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| Celta Vigo Odds | +225 |
| Real Sociedad Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +150 / -200 |
Celta Vigo return home after a hard earned point at Mallorca last weekend and a midweek triumph in the Copa del Rey at Valencia. Rafa Benitez's side has been a consistent buy team for me in Spain this year despite some terrible luck with VAR decisions, penalty luck and finishing variance. Vigo have played like a league average team in the Spanish top flight, and they've been especially good at home this season.
Celta have a +5.5 expected goal differential in home matches this season, but they have a -5 goal differential. They've scored just eight goals from 16.7 expected this year. Most of their underperformance has come on home soil, where only two teams have outplayed them all season and one of them came as the result of an early red card and penalty kick.
Real Sociedad enter this match 10 spots higher in the La Liga table, but Celta have created more chances from set pieces and open plays than the road favorite Sociedad. La Real's underlying numbers in Spain have taken a real step back this season and they're a barely above league average team overall. Celta are extremely passive out of possession and will play over the top of the Sociedad press. Given the true quality of these two teams, Celta should be close to a true pick'em at home.
Sociedad's superior league position has them as an undeserving road favorite given that Celta would be in the top half with some better late game variance and just even amounts of luck.
Pick: Celta Vigo – Draw No Bet (+130)
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