Bournemouth vs Wolves Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Hwang-hee Chan.
Bournemouth vs Wolves Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +137 |
| Wolves Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Bournemouth will try to avoid the fate of being the last Premier League team to earn a league win this season when they host former manager Gary O'Neil and his Wolves squad.
The Cherries' three points put them second from bottom coming out of the international break ahead of only woeful Sheffield United. Most recently, Bournemouth capitulated rather easily in Everton's first home win of the season, a decisive 3-0 affair two weekends ago.
Wolves had their own early season struggles but are now looking to build some momentum following two impressive results — a home win against league champions Manchester City followed by a draw at European aspirants Aston Villa.
Bournemouth edged the season series with an away win and a home draw last league campaign, with only one goal scored between the sides across 180 minutes.
Bournemouth
Whether you're an expected goals truther or an actual goals truther, the caveat you would make about Bournemouth's slow start is that their schedule has been heavily weighted toward the Premier League's elite clubs.
If you rank the league table based on xG difference, the Cherries have faced seven of the top nine sides so far in their season. In terms of actual points earned, it's five of the league's top seven teams.
But that shouldn't completely paper over the fact manager Andoni Iraola's squad has scarcely looked truly competitive in those games. Every defeat has come by multiple goals, and with the exception of a season-opening draw against West Ham, the Cherries have lagged every league opponent by at least 0.8 xG across those seven meetings.
At least that attack won't be shorthanded on Saturday, with Danish attacking midfielder Phillip Billing expected to start after a minor injury kept him out of international duty for Denmark.
He has yet to score or assist a goal this campaign, something Inaola would love to see change soon since Dominic Solanke (three goals) is the only Cherries player to find the net multiple times so far.
Wolves
Fortune didn't favor O'Neil's new team early on, when they saw a credible late penalty appeal wrongly denied in a season-opening 1-0 defeat at Manchester United, and they were far better than the final result showed in a 4-1 loss to Brighton in their home opener.
But that's been reversed of late. First came a smash-and-grab 1-1 draw at Luton despite being outplayed. Then Wolves put on their best defensive performance of the season — admittedly against a potentially road-weary City — and were deserving winners based on the effort if not the analytics when Hwang Hee-Chan found a 66th-minute winner.
Hee-Chan also scored his fifth goal of the campaign in a very evenly played 1-1 home draw to Villa leading into the international break.
But Wolves may feel frustrated that their top scorer played all 90 minutes for South Korea (and scored) in an inconsequential 6-0 friendly victory over Vietnam on Tuesday. That effort and the intercontinental travel that followed could leave O'Neil to be cautious about his use in his return to the club.
Defensive midfielder Mario Lemina will be left out of O'Neil's XI for the first time while serving a suspension following his late sending-off against Villa. Versatile midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is available after serving a three-match ban.
Bournemouth vs Wolves
Pick & Prediction
The first reaction might be to balk at winless Bournemouth being installed as a mild home favorite. However, the line might be correct there, given just how difficult the Cherries' schedule has been so far — with Wolves representing their most beatable opponent to date.
Where there is probably value is backing the likelihood that we won't see more than three goals. These teams have only kept two clean sheets between them, but neither has scored more than two in a league match either. When the total has gone higher than 3.5 goals, it's been the work of the opponent.
With that vantage point, the way to go here might be a goal-bands wager on two or three goals scored at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. It's definitely a "feel" kind of wager, but that's all we really have to go on given Bournemouth in particular have so few matches played against opponents similar to their own level.
Also, Hee-Chan is probably good value to score last if he's on the bench when lineups are announced due to his recent travel, but don't play it until you know what O'Neil decides.
Pick: Goal bands, 2 or 3 total goals (+105 via BetMGM)
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