Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Odds, Prediction | Premier League Picks
(Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images). Pictured: Mark Flekken.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Brentford Odds | -110 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -104 |
Brentford enters Saturday's match at home against Nottingham Forest without a win in its last seven matches in all competitions. The Bees have been comfortably in the mid table for their entire run in the Premier League until now, with just three points separating them from 18th-place Luton Town in the relegation battle.
The injuries and absences because of the Africa Cup of Nations leave both clubs a bit shorthanded on depth at the moment. Brentford is playing without the two strikers that carried it at various points of the first half of the season — Bryan Mbeumo is injured and Yoane Wissa is at AFCON. Ivan Toney makes his return from a gambling-related suspension just in time to boost the Bees attack in this matchup against an improved Nottingham Forest side.
The Trees have three wins, a draw and a loss since Nuno Espírito Santo took over as manager. Given the improved attacking quality they've displayed since he took the job, the market is too low on the total Saturday.
Let's take a closer look at this matchup in our Brentford vs Nottingham preview and prediction.
Brentford
Toney has scored 32 Premier League goals in 65 matches across his first two seasons in the league with Brentford. It was always going to be difficult for the Bees to replace his finishing output internally. Wissa and Mbeumo had done a solid job with 11 combined goals this season, but the Bees are also running well behind their underlying xG numbers. Brentford has averaged 1.71 xG per 90 overall, and 1.55 non-penalty xG per 90 when you remove non 11-on-11 minutes after red cards. They've only scored 1.36 goals per match in attack, an indicator that there's positive regression coming for this group.
Toney may not have played competitive soccer since the end of last season because of his suspension for violating the FA's gambling policy, but he is a massive upgrade over Neal Maupay in terms of what the Bees have available this weekend.
Brentford's main reason for tumbling down the table is the poor goal prevention and shot stopping. By post-shot expected goals, no goalie in the Premier League has been worse than Brentford's Mark Flekken. He's cost the Bees about 7.5 goals this season. Given the Bees' style to concede high shot volume and low shot quality, they need a positive shot stopper and the downgrade from David Raya to Flekken has been extreme on the margins this season.
Brentford played legitimate top-six level soccer in the first half, but the metrics are basically league average in the last 10 matches. They've produced 1.5 xG per match and conceded 1.55 per match. Throw in the poor shot-stopping and you have a rather high event Bees team with lots of goals projected at both ends.
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Nottingham Forest
Similar to Brentford, goalkeeping has been a major issue for the Trees this season. The usually reliable shot stopper Matt Turner has seen his numbers take a dip in shot-stopping (-3.3 post-shot expected goals allowed) and he's made numerous mistakes with his feet to concede big scoring chances for the opponent. They briefly tried backup Odysseas Vlachodimos, who cost them four extra goals in five matches and was quickly benched himself.
Nottingham Forest has played five matches in all competitions under Espírito Santo and have scored 12 goals. Even though two of those were cup matches against Blackpool, the improved attacking patterns are noticeable immediately. The Trees scored twice on Bournemouth after going down to 10 men. They posted three goals and 3.5 xG almost entirely on the break against Newcastle at St. James' Park and then scored twice on Manchester United at the City Ground.
In the five matches prior to firing Steve Cooper, the Trees scored only three times, and one was a penalty. Nottingham Forest is dealing with some key absences in midfield and defense due to AFCON as well. Ibrahim Sangaré, Willy Boly, Moussa Niakhaté, Ola Aina and Cheikhou Kouyaté are all away on international duty.
Anthony Elanga's status remains in doubt for Saturday, but the potential group of Chris Wood, Morgan Gibbs-White and Elanga is a functioning mid-table attacking group, especially on the break.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Nottingham Forest's season-long metrics in attack are deflated because the end of the Steve Cooper era was so dire from an attacking perspective. The rumors that the dressing room had grown tired of him seemed quite plausible given the response that Espírito Santo has received already.
Brentford has not only underperformed its xG this year, but its best striker and scorer makes his return at home. Both teams have conceded over 1.5 xGA per match and neither has reliable goalkeeping right now. The total is too low at 2.5 and I'd bet the over 2.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-120 or Better)
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