Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig Bundesliga Betting Odds & Pick: Will Offense Rule for Red Bulls? (Sunday, May 24)

Credit:

ANP Sport via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcel Sabitzer

  • RB Leipzig is a heavy favorite over Mainz 05 in Sunday's Bundesliga action (9:30 p.m. ET).
  • Mainz looked like a sure bet for relegation early on, but has since picked it up with nine points in its last six matches.
  • Brad Cunningham breaks down how he's betting the total in Leipzig vs. Mainz.

Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig Odds

RB Leipzig -245
Mainz 05 +525
Draw +410
Over/Under 3.5 (+118/-148)
Time 9:30 a.m. ET
TV FS1

Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


RB Leipzig head to Opel Arena to take on bottom-feeder Mainz on Sunday.

RB Leipzig are currently in fifth place with 51 points but have a game in hand on Borussia Monchengladbach (52 points) and Bayer Leverkusen (53 points).

Mainz come into Sunday in 15th place and are just four points ahead of Fortuna Dusseldorf, who sit in the relegation playoff spot. Die Nullfünfer desperately need a result to create some breathing room and secure another season in the Bundesliga.

Mainz 05

For much of the season, Mainz looked like a sure bet for a relegation scrap and only tallied 18 points through their first 20 games. However, over the past seven matches, Die Nullfünfer have picked up their quality of play earning nine points in their last six matches.

Much of Mainz’s issues this season has comes against the top of the table. Against the top-eight teams, Mainz have not earned a single point in 12 matches and have been outscored, 38-5.

In their previous match, Mainz rallied from a 2-0 halftime deficit at Koln to earn a 2-2 draw. And based on the expected goals report, they deserved the result.

Mainz have been lackluster at home this season, accruing only 14 points in 13 matches. Additionally, Die Nullfünfer have a -1.65 expected goal differential at Opel Arena. Matches involving Mainz have been filled with goals this year, scoring on average 3.27 expected goals per game and 50% of the matches going over 3.5 goals.

RB Leipzig

Leipzig had a disappointing result last weekend, drawing, 1-1, at home against Freiburg. The expected goals report shows that Die Roten Bullen should have won the game comfortably given their quality of chances.

RB Leipzig needs all three points in this game to secure a Champions League spot — anything short of all three will be detrimental to their chances to finish in the top four.

RB Leipzig is a goal machine, scoring 2.28 expected goals per game. Die Roten Bullen has been dominant against weaker opposition, outscoring bottom-of-the-table teams, 42-12, in 13 games. Given Mainz’s shaky defense against the top of the table, Die Roten Bullen should have no problem scoring multiple goals in this match.

Previous Meeting

RB Leipzig blitzed Mainz in their previous meeting, 8-0, at Red Bull Arena. Timo Werner had his best game of the season bagging three goals and three assists in the rout.

Mainz’s defense had no answers for RB Leipzig’s attack, and Die Roten Bullen punished them all game long by pushing the ball into the 6-yard box, scoring three goals.

Analysis

Looking at the numbers for this match it screams goals. RB Leipzig’s and Mainz’s matches have gone over 3.5 goals at a 50% rate this season.

Additionally, the total expected goals for this match based on my model is 3.73 xG:

  • Mainz 05: 1.12 xG
  • RB Leipzig: 2.61 xG

The current odds for the over of 3.5 is +118, which is good value given RB Leipzig’s goal scoring prowess and Mainz’s shaky defense.

My Pick: Over 3.5 (+118)

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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