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Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Borussia Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (Feb. 19-20)

Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Borussia Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (Feb. 19-20) article feature image
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Frederic Scheidemann/Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Mönchengladbach standout Kouadio Koné.

Bochum shocked all of Europe last weekend with its 4-2 win against European giant Bayern Munich as a +1100 moneyline home underdog.

Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig all cruised to comfortable league by multiple goals, cementing their statuses as the three teams most likely to join Bayern in next year’s Champions League.

In a year with a more consistent Dortmund, a title race could have been on, but the club is still is six points behind Bayern. Needless to say, it remains highly unlikely the Black and Yellows will catch them with 12 league matches to go and a road trip to Munich remaining on the schedule.

Dortmund has a tricky match this weekend, hosting underperforming Borussia Mönchengladbach, who finally found a victory Saturday with a 3-2 home triumph against Augsburg. Gladbach has been a much better underdog this season and could cause some issues for its hosts.

Bayern had a disappointing Champions League showing at RB Salzburg, settling for a 1-1 draw, but should be able to handle a home game with last-place Greuther Fürth in the latest fixtures.

That said, here are my three favorite picks from the full nine-game slate this weekend in the German top flight:

Bundesliga Best Bets

Wolfsburg vs. Hoffenheim

Wolfsburg Odds +170
Hoffenheim Odds +160
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Wolfsburg might finally be starting to turn its season around following two consecutive wins against Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve vaulted up to 12th in the Bundesliga table, scoring six goals from 3.5 expected goals in the last two games.

There’s still a lot of room for this attack to positively regress and I’d expect them to continue this hot recent finishing run they’ve begun.

Overall, the matchup with Hoffenheim is a favorable one. Although Wolfsburg lost on the road at Hoffenheim early in the season, Wolfsburg controlled large stretches out of the match and finished with more shots and penalty area touches. Hoffenheim has some significant defensive issues, especially when they’ve traveled away from home this campaign.

In its recent games against upper half teams, Hoffenheim has been a sieve defensively. They conceded 2.0 xG to Mainz; 1.5 xG to Dortmund on four shots; 1.7 xG to Union Berlin; 1.6 xG to Gladbach; and, 2.0 xG to Leverkusen. For the year, Hoffenheim’s defense is just eighth in big scoring chances allowed and 12th in crosses allowed into the penalty area.

Wolfsburg is a marginally worse team, but with the home field they should be a bigger favorite and they’re lined as a toss-up. Hoffenheim has over-performed its xG in attack and has some regression coming as well.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Wolfsburg — Draw No Bet (-110)

Bayern Munich vs. Greuther Fürth

Bayern Odds -1400
Fürth Odds +2800
Draw +1200
Over/Under 4.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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The biggest spread and total you’ll see the entire season comes is part of Sunday’s game, with Bayern entering as three-goal favorites with a total set at 4.5 goals.

Greuther Fürth have played like a mid-table team based on xGDiff and actual goal difference since December, but a historically bad start has them almost certain to be relegated at season’s end.

Fürth actually held Bayern to its lowest xG total in a single game in the Bundesliga all year when the powerhouse only managed 0.9 xG on their way to a 3-1 victory. There was a red card involved after the game was decided, but Fürth’s plan to make anyone but Robert Lewandowski beat them did limit chances overall, even though Bayern comfortably triumphed.

Bayern has been on cruise control and with its more attacking 3-4-3 lineup that shoves all of Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sané and Thomas Muller onto the pitch, so they’re sacrificing defensive solidity. Corentin Tolisso is also less secure than Leon Goretzka next to Joshua Kimmich in the center of the park for Bayern.

So, despite all of the advantages Bayern has in this matchup, Fürth’s attack has shown recent signs of life and I expect them to score a goal. They’ve improved, Bayern’s top goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is out and Fürth should be better odds to score then they are at this moment.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Greuther Fürth — Team Total Over 0.5 (+100)

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Dortmund vs. Glabdach

Dortmund Odds -165
Gladbach Odds +425
Draw +340
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 / -130)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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My third best bet is a real hold-your-nose play on a team that has underachieved more than any other in Germany. However, that hasn’t stopped them from being a decent underdog.

Gladbach beat Dortmund, 1-0, earlier this season, has defeated Bayern twice and drawn them once, and has now ended a brutal recent run of form with a win against Augsburg.

This is a good situational spot for the Foals, even on the road at Dortmund. It’s sandwiched directly in the middle of the Black and Yellows two-legged Europa League tie with Rangers, and they’ll need a two-goal comeback in the second leg in next Thursday’s meeting.

Star striker Erling Haaland picked up an injury against Hoffenheim, so the Dortmund attack drops off considerably without him. The club did win, 3-0, at Union Berlin last weekend, but the box score suggested it should have been more like a 2-1 game. He hasn’t returned to training at this point and it’s unlikely he’s rushed back for this home game.

Gladbach has played better on the counter than with the majority of the possession, plus the Foals can absolutely expose a very weak Dortmund transition defense, especially on the wings.

Throw in the fact Dortmund’s attack has run well above its xG this season, along with the Foals being the biggest offensive under-performers in the league, and the regression indicators point toward a close game.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Gladbach +1 (-110)

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