Bundesliga Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Sunday’s 3 Matches (May 24)
JAN WOITAS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Youssef Poulsen
- Looking to bet on the Bundesliga? Our staff compiled their favorite bets for Sunday's three matches. The last one kicks off at noon ET.
- Koln has been running well at home, and has the advantage over Fortuna Dusseldorf according to the underlying metrics.
We’re getting close to the business portion of the 2019-20 Bundesliga season. Matchweek 27 will draw to a close on Sunday and next week’s fixture list features a season-defining matchup between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
But that’s for next week. For now, the focus is on the remaining three matches for this weekend:
- Augsburg vs. Schalke, 7:30 a.m. ET, FS1
- RB Leipzig vs. Mainz, 9:30 a.m. ET, FS1
- Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. FC Koln, 12 p.m. ET, FS1
Here are our favorite bets for Sunday’s action in Germany:
Augsburg at Schalke 04
7:30 a.m. ET, FS1
This matchup pits two clubs in truly bad form, which makes this contest extremely interesting to handicap.
Schalke was handed a 4-0 trashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund last week, continuing its horrific string of results in Bundesliga action. The club has just won victory in its last 11 Bundesliga matches, with its last win coming more than five months ago on January 17 against Borussia M. Gladbach. Since that victory, Schalke has four draws and four losses on its record.
Augsburg, which is 10th in the league with 35.99 expected goals, was dealt a heartbreaking setback last weekend in a 2-1 loss against Wolfsburg. It was Augsburg’s fourth consecutive defeat and eighth setback in its last 10 league contests.
Expected goals is an advanced statistic gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
These are two clubs in dire straits and I am not sure what’s going to give here. Schalke, which is a dismal 15th in the Bundesliga with 29.54 expected goals, is somehow still positioned to capture one of the league’s coveted Europa League spots next season and Augsburg is still nine points clear of the relegation zone.
Taking everything into consideration, I am backing the total go over the number and both teams to score. Augsburg has been brutal on the road, conceding at least two goals in its last six Bundesliga matches, and Schalke should be able to capitalize on its foe’s porous defense. I also think Augsburg will be able to get on the scoreboard as well after watching Dortmund absolutely throttle Schalke in their return to the pitch.
These are teams with leaky defenses and I think we could see some Sunday fireworks.
The Bets: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-134); Total Over 2.5 Goals (-110)
Augsburg at Schalke
Time: 7:30 a.m. ET, FS1
Schalke did not give a good account of themselves against their rivals, Borussia Dortmund, last weekend but Die Knappen were a bit unfortunate, giving up four goals on 1.7 xG.
Finding goals has been a struggle all season for Schalke, who have 33 goals on 29.54 xG in 26 matches, but they should have some opportunities against Augsburg, who grade out as one of the worst defensive sides in Germany’s top division.
Augsburg has allowed 54 goals this season and while their expected goals suggest they’ve been a little unlucky to be that porous, their 35.99 xGA still ranks in the bottom-third of the Bundesliga.
Augsburg also sports the third-lowest clean sheet percentage (shutout) in the Bundesliga at 15%, and 65% of their matches this season have seen both teams score.
The low total makes sense since neither of these two attacks pack much punch, but I think the defensive deficiencies for both sides give some value to the Over at 2.5 goals. Augsburg’s defense is clearly the weaker bunch in this fixture, but Schalke’s backline has been the definition of average in 2019-20.
A high-scoring affair may not be in the cards, but the numbers suggest that this match could be more open than we think. While Schalke matches feature just 2.81 goals on average this season (16th), Augsburg is at the other end of the table with an average of 3.5 total goals per match, which is the fourth-highest mark in the Bundesliga.
I don’t think that three goals is too much to ask for out of these sides in a match that shouldn’t feature much pressure — at least from a standings point of view.
If you’re looking to back a team on the moneyline, I’d say it’s Augsburg or pass at this number. There’s really not all that much between these two teams from a statistical perspective, so a +255 payout on the underdogs is not a bad bet at all.
The Bet: Over 2.5 (-118); Augsburg +255
Fortuna Dusseldorf at FC Koln
12 p.m. ET, FS1
Koln have the eighth-best home record in the Bundesliga this season, nabbing 20 points in 13 games including a 5-1-1 stretch with a +6.29 expected goals differential in their last seven matches at RheinEnergieStadion.
Last week, Koln held a two-goal lead at the break before Mainz turned that game on its head leveling the match with two goals in a span of 11 minutes in the second half.
That was an uncharacteristic collapse by Koln as they typically are a very strong side with a lead. So far this campaign, Koln has spent 613 minutes with a lead and have an expected goal differential of +8.58 during that span.
Koln is currently a -136 favorite and in my opinion, that line is too low.
Dusseldorf really struggles inside the 18-yard box, allowing 1.25 xG inside the penalty area per game, which is second worst in the Bundesliga. The Billy Goats, on the other hand, score 0.91 xG inside the penalty are per game. That should give Koln a decided advantage in this match.
Based on my model I have the expected goals at:
- Koln: 2.17 xG
- Fortuna Dusseldorf: 0.91 xG
Based on those numbers and given Koln’s great recent run of form at home, I am backing the Billy Goats to win.
Bet: Koln -136