Friday Bundesliga Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction & Expert Tips: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich Betting Preview

Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich Odds

The Bundesliga season begins Friday when Bayern Munich, winner of 10 consecutive league titles, visits Europa League champion Eintracht Frankfurt.

The hosts stumbled to the finish of the league season with zero wins in their final eight matches, as they turned their attention to the quest for Europa League silverware.

Frankfurt will again be competing on two fronts in Bundesliga and Champions League, but an 11th-placed showing in the German top flight was even higher than underlying numbers suggested. The club made some interesting signings, but it could be a difficult season in the domestic campaign again.

As for Bayern, it wasn't nearly as dominant in the second half as it was in the first, but the Bavarian side still comfortably rolled to another trophy. Now, the Bavarians are without Robert Lewandowski and look to replace most of his production with former Liverpool forward Sadio Mané.

Eintracht Frankfurt

Frankfurt made two notable summer signings, headlined by 30-year-old forward Mario Gotze, who returns to Germany from Dutch outfit PSV Eindhoven. Manager Oliver Glasner's club also added Lucas Alario from Bayer Leverkusen.

Perhaps most importantly, Frankfurt appears it will keep hold of Filip Kostic, the wing back who creates a lot of the attack through crosses and chance creation.

The Europa League champions impressed with a 4-0 drubbing of second-tier side Magdeburg in the DFB-Pokal, but I'm a bit skeptical in general. Its underlying numbers in the Bundesliga, even before Europa play became priority, were underwhelming.

By The Numbers

• 12 — Frankfurt's xG difference ranking in Germany from the beginning of season through March.
• 11.4 — The club’s passes per defensive action, which ranked fifth in the league.

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Bayern Munich

One of the most important questions in Europe is determining how to adjust Bayern's rating after replacing Lewandowski with Mané. On one hand, he was an elite striker who dominated Germany for years. On the other, he did little else to provide value, through passing and pressing, at this stage of his career.

Lewandowski averaged 1.17 xG + xA per 90 in Germany last year. Mané averaged 0.67 per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Apply an inflator of about 17% — based on historical averages — for him moving to the EPL and you get to about 0.8 per 90 minutes. That is a drop-off in production, but can Bayern replace that by getting more from Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané?

Personally, I think the Bavarians can come pretty close. The market has lowered Bayern a bit, based on league title odds. I'm not lowering much at all, especially where the league is struggling as a whole.

By The Numbers

• +2.42 — Bayern Munich’s xG Diff per 90 minutes in the first half of the Bundesliga season.
• +1.16 — The Bavarians’ xGDiff per 90 minutes in the second half of the campaign.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Frankfurt managed to beat Bayern once last season, but was thoroughly outplayed on xG both times. Frankfurt's Europa run was a bit of a mirage to the reality that its attack was below average and defense over-performed relative to xG as well.

My projections have Bayern as a 1.5-goal favorite, given I’m lower on Frankfurt than the market. So, I'd bet Bayern giving -1.5 goals at plus money or take the -1.25 spread line via the Asian Handicap at -120 or better.

The Pick: Bayern -1.25 (-110)