Wednesday Champions League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Manchester City in High-Scoring Affair

Man City vs. Club Brugge Odds

A crucial match in securing a place in the Round of 16 of the Champions League takes place at the City of Manchester Stadium on Wednesday when Manchester City hosts Club Brugge in Matchday 4.

Last season’s runner-up head into the match in second of Group A on six points, while the Belgian champions are just behind them in third with four points.

In the previous match between the two clubs a few weeks back, City ran away with a convincing 5-1 victory in Belgium, winning the expected goals (xG) battle (3.9-0.8) as well, according to fbref.com.

The Cityzens have won six of their seven games against Belgian opposition, but Brugge has proven to be a tough test this season looking to advance from the group stages.

Manchester City Coming Off Huge Upset Loss

This is another important week for Pep Guardiola’s side as his team looks to take a step towards advancing in the Champions League before facing local rival Manchester United on Saturday.

The Cityzens will be looking to bounce back from the shocking loss to Crystal Palace this past weekend, but they should be able to do so with the form they are on.

Over their last six matches between the EPL and Champions League, Man City boast a +7.8 xG difference and scored 13 goals over that span.

For the EPL season, City are in third behind only Chelsea and Liverpool in the league table and rank second in xG (21.9) and first in xG allowed at 7.4.

The dominating form has carried over into European competition, with the Cityzens owning a +5.7 xG difference through three matches and a +5 goal difference.

Club Brugge Capable of Another Shock Result

When the groups were announced before the competition began, most viewed Club Brugge as the locked in favorites to finish last in Group A, but that has not been the case so far.

Philippe Clement’s team picked up a draw at home against PSG before securing the victory in Germany against RB Leipzig. Over the three matches, Brugge have won the xG battle in two of those contests and scored in all three.

In its domestic league, Brugge sit in second place on 26 points with a +8 goal difference and only one loss.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers are expecting another dominating victory from the hosts as they have the Citizens listed as -900 favorites on the moneyline to go with a total of 3.5 goals at DraftKings.

With the spread and total all looking about right for me, I see value in the same game parlay options.

My best bet for this match is Man City to Win and Both Teams to Score at +170.  The same bet cashed in the first meeting between the two teams, but let’s also look at this bet from a wider range.

If you start with the visiting team, Brugge has scored in every game this season in all competitions, including all three in the Champions League.

Since the loss to PSG in September, City has only kept a clean sheet against Burnley over the last five matches between EPL and Champions League action. Pep’s side has also conceded in all three fixtures in the European competition so far.

With the big Manchester Derby coming up at the weekend, I could see some rotation in the lineup and a chance City is peaking ahead, which gives Brugge a better chance to score.

You have to get creative if you try to back the Cityzens in games like this, but I think there’s great value in this play for Wednesday.

Pick: Manchester City to Win & Both Teams To Score (+170)