Copa America Semifinal Odds, Early Betting Preview: Brazil-Argentina and Chile-Peru

Jun 30, 2019 12:38 PM EDT
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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chile’s Alexis Sanchez

  • The 2019 Copa America semifinal is now set with Brazil taking on Argentina (Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET) and Chile facing Peru (Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET).
  • Brazil and Chile are the favorites to meet in the final, but Argentina and Peru are both live underdogs.

It’s been a strange 2019 Copa America thus far with only one underdog winning outright in regulation (Colombia over Argentina in group stage), although favorites haven’t excelled either due to high prices.

Draws have been the money-makers this tournament with nine-of-22 matches finished tied after regulation. That’s been good for +20.75 units overall by blindly betting the draw in every game.

In the semifinal, Brazil and Chile are favorites to progress, but Argentina and Peru will be difficult underdogs to deal with.

The Copa America final is set for Sunday, July 7 at 4 p.m. ET.

Brazil vs. Argentina Betting Odds

Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET

  • To Advance: Brazil -260, Argentina +200
  • Brazil Moneyline: -115
  • Argentina Moneyline: +330
  • Draw: +235
  • Spread: Brazil -0.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-135)

Brazil were massive favorites to advance past Paraguay in the quarterfinal, though they needed penalty kicks in order to progress.

Argentina started the tournament poorly with a loss to Colombia and draw with Paraguay, but have picked up consecutive wins over Qatar and Venezuela to get here.

In this highly-anticipated semifinal matchup, Brazil are considerable -260 favorites to advance while Argentina are available at +200. In regulation, Brazil are -115 to win while Argentina are +330 to pull off the upset and +235 to draw.

The majority of early action has come in on Argentina, but we’ve seen some sharp money on both sides. On two different occasions the odds moved toward Argentina followed by quick buyback on Brazil each time.

This is a dream matchup for sportsbooks since both teams will attract a lot of betting attention, so expect to see lines fluctuate the next few days.

Chile vs. Peru Betting Odds

Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET

  • To Advance: Chile -205, Peru +170
  • Chile Moneyline: -105
  • Peru Moneyline: +290
  • Draw: +215
  • Spread: Chile -0.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 2 (u-130)

Chile are aiming for their third consecutive Copa America title and have reached the semifinal after eliminating Colombia in penalty kicks, 5-4.

Peru also pulled off an upset in the quarterfinal by knocking off Uruguay as +250 underdogs in penalty kicks, 5-4.

In the quarterfinal, teams that were tied in regulation went straight to a penalty shootout rather than extra time which tends to benefit the underdog. That won’t be the case in the semifinal as 30 minutes of extra time will be played and teams will be given a fourth substitute as well.

Oddsmakers see Chile as the clear favorites to advance, although their odds to win in regulation are only -105. That means there’s close to a 50% chance that Peru can win in 90 minutes or at least send the match into extra time.

Public bettors will surely lean toward Chile, but I’ll be riding out a Peru futures bet in hopes of hedging in the final.

2019 Copa America Odds

  • Brazil opened as the clear team to beat in this tournament and are now the odds-on favorites heading into the semifinal.
  • Argentina’s odds have actually worsened because of their matchup with Brazil before the final.
  • Chile have improved from +1100 to +400 since the start of the tournament.
  • Peru were +3300 longshots prior to upsetting Uruguay but are now down to +1100 to win the 2019 Copa America.
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