2019 Copa America Quarterfinal Betting Odds, Preview: Early Action on Two Underdogs
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Colombia’s James Rodriguez
- The 2019 Copa America quarterfinal is set to start Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET with hosts Brazil taking on Paraguay, followed by Argentina-Venezuela and Colombia-Chile on Friday, and Uruguay-Peru on Saturday.
- If all four quarterfinal favorites advance, it would set up a Brazil-Argentina and Colombia-Uruguay semifinal.
Brazil (-500), Colombia (+160) and Uruguay (+110) were the undefeated group winners but Colombia were the only side to win all three matches. Unfortunately their reward is the toughest opponent in the quarterfinal round, Chile.
All quarterfinal matches can be seen on ESPN+, Telemundo and fuboTV.
Brazil vs. Paraguay (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Odds to Advance: Brazil -1250, Paraguay +750
- Brazil Moneyline: -555
- Paraguay Moneyline: +1650
- Draw: +650
- Spread: Brazil -2 (-105)
- Over/Under: 3 (u-125)
Brazil have yet to concede a goal in the 2019 Copa America and also scored the most goals (8) in the group stage. The hosts now get to face Paraguay in the quarterfinal as massive favorites.
They should be careful though, as Paraguay have eliminated Brazil in the quarterfinal in 2011 and 2015, both in a penalty shootout. Casemiro is suspended for Brazil after picking up his second yellow of the tournament in the last group match.
The moneyline has shifted both up and down depending on the sportsbook, but the market currently lists Brazil with an 85% win probability in regulation. I’m looking for Brazil to avenge the previous eliminations to Paraguay with a 3-0 or 3-1 victory on home soil Thursday night.
Argentina vs. Venezuela (Friday, 3 p.m. ET)
- Odds to Advance: Argentina -350, Venezuela +265
- Argentina Moneyline: -175
- Venezuela Moneyline: +550
- Draw: +285
- Spread: Argentina -1 (-110)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-130)
Argentina were upset by Colombia and then disappointingly drew, 1-1, with Paraguay before beating Qatar, 2-0, to advance out of the group stage. Argentina has made the final in the last two Copa Americas but haven’t won a major trophy in 26 years.
Venezuela managed to go undefeated in the group stage with draws against Brazil and Peru and a win against Bolivia. There’s no doubt they’re the more cohesive side than Argentina right now, but still find themselves as considerable underdogs to advance.
Don’t be surprised to see sharp bettors come in on Venezuela while the public will undoubtedly back Argentina at any price.
Colombia vs. Chile (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
- Odds to Advance: Colombia -160, Chile +140
- Colombia Moneyline: +125
- Chile Moneyline: +280
- Draw: +220
- Spread: Colombia -0.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 2 (o-130)
Colombia looked very solid in the group stage and sealed first place in Group A with three shutout wins against Argentina, Qatar and Paraguay.
Chile coasted past Ecuador and Japan in the first two games before losing to Uruguay, 1-0, to fall into second in Group C. The back-to-back defending champions now face a difficult path if they want to win a third straight Copa America title.
Oddsmakers clearly give the edge to Colombia in a low-scoring game though early bettors are on Chile to pull off the upset. My early lean has to be on the draw at +220 odds and potentially Chile +140 to advance.
Uruguay vs. Peru (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET)
- Odds to Advance: Uruguay -300, Peru +240
- Uruguay Moneyline: -140
- Peru Moneyline: +475
- Draw: +255
- Spread: Uruguay -0.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 2 (o-140)
Uruguay defeated both Ecuador and Chile in the group stage and won Group C despite drawing 2-2 with Japan. A rematch in the semifinal against Chile could be in store if both teams progress.
Peru did what was expected by tying Venezuela, beating Bolivia and losing to Brazil in the group stage. They now find themselves as big underdogs to advance to the semifinal, but early bettors have shown some faith.
A few sportsbooks opened Uruguay as high as -170 on the moneyline and quickly had to drop to the -140 range. At the same time, early sharp action on the under (2.5) and under (2) has shifted the market despite public bettors on the over.