Crystal Palace vs Burnley Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match
Marc Atkins/Getty. Pictured: Burnley and Luton Town players.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | -106 |
| Burnley Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -143 |
The Oliver Glasner managerial era begins at Selhurst Park on Saturday when Crystal Palace hosts a Burnley club that appears content to let Vincent Kompany lead the battle against relegation until the end.
Glasner assumes the reigns following the resignation of the much-esteemed English football veteran Roy Hodgson, who stepped down amid a health scare and following a run of two victories in 15 games played in all competitions. Glasner was appointed in time to watch Palace’s 1-1 draw at Everton on Monday, although it was interim boss Ray Lewington in charge that night.
Kompany’s Burnley were thumped 5-0 at home against an in-form Arsenal side on Saturday. But while they appear unlikely to make up the gap needed to avoid relegation, they have fared slightly better this season as the visitor, with two of their three league wins coming away from home.
Palace defeated Burnley 2-0 at Turf Moor back in November in a match that transpired more evenly than the result suggested.
Read on for my Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction.
Crystal Palace
While Glasner had not technically taken the reins at Goodison Park on Monday, McCarthy sent out the side in a 3-4-3 (or 3-4-2-1) that is the new Austrian boss’s preferred shape.
The results were mixed. On one hand, the Eagles snapped a three-match away losing run and held an opponent to only one goal for the first time in five matches. On the other, they were fortunate to escape with a point on the strength of an individually brilliant goal from Jordan Ayew and some wasteful Everton finishing.
The Eagles have not won a match without Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise attacking on their flanks since their previous victory over Burnley, and the pair are still out with thigh injuries. Despite making only 11 league appearances, Olise’s six goals are tied for the team lead.
And yet Palace’s struggles have not necessarily been going forward. The Eagles have scored in 14 of their last 16 league games. But they’ve conceded in 15 of those 16 after having preserved four clean sheets in their first nine opportunities.
Burnley
Burnley’s big winter signing David Fofana got off to a dream start when he came off the bench to score twice and help the Clarets rally to a 2-2 draw against Fulham.
But the Ivorian acquisition from Union Berlin continues to struggle to impact the games that he starts. All but one of his goal involvements for either of his teams has come when used as a substitute. And he’s averaging around 0.9 xG per 90 minutes across his appearances as a sub, against only 0.3 xG per 90 as a starter.
Still, Fofana is likely to continue to start because no one else is scoring at a high enough rate to consider saving any goal production on the bench. Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster lead the Clarets with four goals each, and they’re averaging just 0.21 and 0.31 goals per 90 minutes, respectively.
Further, the Clarets are often involved in games that are too far gone before a late substitute could change them. Their 26 first-half goals conceded are tied with Sheffield United for the highest total in the league and six more than the next-closest side, Nottingham Forest.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Prediction
The uncertainty surrounding what Glasner's version of Palace will look like — and whether he will receive a "new coach bump" — makes this a very difficult game to handicap.
But if you're just judging by performances to date, neither team has been particularly benefitted by playing in front of their home supporters.
Burnley have picked up three more points away from home than at Turf Moor, and while their xG data might suggest those results haven't been warranted, it's also inflated in a negative direction by a couple of blowout defeats.
The total has also come in under 3.5 goals in every away game in which Burnley has taken a point — and they've done so in half of their six away matches against lower-half sides. Similarly, Palace has dropped points in four of its seven home games against bottom-half oppositions, and three of those games saw fewer than 3.5 goals scored.
So the play here — so much as there is one — is on same-game parlay on Burnley to take a point in a tight scoring affair at +126 odds and an implied 44.2% probability. It is not one advised with a high level of confidence, however.
Pick: Burnley or draw and under 3.5, same-game parlay (+126 via ESPNBet)
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