The first week of the 2026 World Cup is in the books, and if there's one theme that has defined the tournament so far, it's uncertainty.
Through 24 matches since Mexico and South Africa kicked off the tournament a week ago, draws have dominated the conversation. Underdogs are finding the net at a historic rate. Both teams are scoring far more often than expected. And despite all that chaos, favorites have largely avoided outright disaster.
With every team now having played once, let's look at some of the biggest betting trends and storylines from the opening round of matches.
Draws Everywhere
The biggest story of the tournament so far has been the number of matches ending level. Through 24 games, we've seen nine draws, or 37.5% of all matches.
Historically, first-round World Cup matches finish in a draw about 22% of the time. That means 2026 is running at roughly 1.7 times the historical average and currently owns the second-highest draw rate through the opening cycle of matches in World Cup history, trailing only the 1982 tournament.
For bettors, the results have been extremely profitable. A bettor risking $100 on the draw in every match so far would be ahead $2,463 through 24 games.
Three of those results came at particularly large prices:
- Spain vs. Cape Verde (13-1)
- Switzerland vs. Qatar (6-1)
- Portugal vs. DR Congo (5-1)
The expanded format complicates historical comparisons because the 2026 World Cup features more teams and therefore more opportunities for draws. Looking at raw totals alone doesn't fully tell the story.
Even with that adjustment, 2026 stands out. Across the previous nine World Cups since 1990, the best opening cycle for draw bettors came in 2010, when draws cashed six times in 16 matches and generated a profit of $469.
For additional perspective, there were only nine draws during the entire group stage of both the 2014 and 2018 World Cups. The 2022 tournament finished with 10 group-stage draws across 48 matches. The 2026 tournament has already produced nine draws before any team has played its second match.
Underdogs Keep Scoring
The underdogs may not be winning often, but they are finding the back of the net. In 24 matches, the underdog has scored at least one goal in 19 games, or 79.2% of all matches. That is the highest rate through the opening cycle of matches of any World Cup since 1990.
The average across the previous nine tournaments sits at 54%, meaning underdogs typically score in just over half of their opening matches. The previous high was the 2014 World Cup, when underdogs scored in 68.8% of first-round games. The 2026 tournament is running more than 10 percentage points above that mark.
The contrast with recent tournaments is striking. In 2022, underdogs scored in only 37.5% of their opening matches, making it the lowest-scoring tournament for longshots of the modern era.
Both Teams to Score Is Cashing at a Historic Rate
The underdog scoring trend has naturally fueled another betting market. Both teams are scoring. Through 24 matches, 17 games have seen both teams score, producing a BTTS "Yes" rate of 70.8%. Since 1990, the average first-cycle BTTS rate is just 44.1%.
The current tournament is not only well above average, it's currently the highest BTTS rate of the modern era. The previous high was 2014 at 68.8%. The difference becomes even more impressive when compared to the lowest-scoring opening cycle. In 2010, BTTS cashed in just 31.2% of matches.
The 2026 tournament is currently running at more than double that pace.
Favorites Are Avoiding Disaster
Despite the high draw rate and the surge in underdog scoring, favorites have largely avoided outright losses. Through 24 matches, there have been 19 teams that closed as odds-on favorites on the three-way moneyline.
Those favorites have gone:
10 wins
8 draws
1 loss
The lone outright upset came when Australia defeated Turkey. All 19 underdogs entered those matches at +300 or higher on the three-way moneyline. That leaves longshots with just one victory in 19 opportunities, a win rate of 5.3%. While the draws have piled up, outright underdog wins have remained difficult to find.
The last opening cycle that saw one win or fewer from underdogs priced at 3-1 or higher was the 2006 World Cup. Those teams went 0-13.
Overs Have Been Right Down the Middle
If you've been betting totals, the results have been remarkably balanced.
Through 24 matches:
- Overs are 12-11-1
- Unders are 11-12-1
- Games with three or more goals are exactly 12-12
Unlike draws, BTTS and underdog scoring, the totals market has been almost perfectly efficient through the opening round.
What It Means Going Forward
The opening cycle of matches often sets the tone for a World Cup, but it rarely predicts what comes next. Draw rates historically decline as teams become more aggressive later in group play. Favorites generally become more comfortable as the tournament progresses. At the same time, expanded fields create more variance and more unfamiliar matchups than previous tournaments.
What we do know is this:
The 2026 World Cup has produced one of the most draw-heavy starts ever.
Underdogs are scoring at the highest rate of the modern era.
Both teams are finding the net at a historic pace.
And through all of it, favorites have mostly avoided elimination-level damage.
Twenty-four matches in, this World Cup has already become one of the most unique starts we've seen in decades.
