Everton vs. Leicester
| Everton Odds | +160 |
| Leicester Odds | +188 |
| Draw Odds | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+118/-148) |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Champions League implications will be on the line Wednesday when Leicester heads to Goodison Park to take on Everton.
Everton has been completely revitalized since Carlo Ancelotti took over in December, vaulting them to the middle of the table. The Toffees realistically have nothing to play for this match, but they will want to keep their good run of form going.
Leicester sits in third place, with a number of challengers hot on their trail. The Foxes cannot afford to drop points in this match, as they have a tough schedule to finish the season.
Everton
Carlo Ancelotti has completely turned Everton's season around ever since he took over and the Toffees now look like one of the top teams in England:
| xGF/Game | xGA/Game | |
|---|---|---|
| Before Ancelotti | 1.66 | 1.39 |
| After | 1.88 | 1.19 |
Everton really deserved to be challenging for a Europa League spot this season, but instead find themselves in the middle of the table. Based on expected points, the Toffees should be five spots higher in the table (41 actual points versus 49.48 xPoints).
Goodison Park has been a tough place to play for opposing offenses as the Toffees only allow 1.12 xG per game. The Toffees have been especially stellar defensively against the top of the table at home, with only 1.19 xG allowed per game.
Leicester
This has been Leicester City’s best season since their miraculous Championship run in 2015-16. Leicester had a fantastic run of form between Oct. 19 and Dec. 8 that saw the Foxes win nine matches in a row and outscore their opponents 25-3.
However, the Foxes have struggled since the restart, drawing with Watford and Brighton in their last two matches. They struggled to generate quality scoring changes, with only 0.67 and 1.01 expected goals in those two matches.
Those two matches were a continuation of their struggles in front of the net, as the Foxes have only averaged 1.13 expected goals per game in their last six matches. Leicester really need all three points here, but points will be difficult to come by against an in form Everton squad.
Analysis
I figured Everton's good form would have warranted them being favored in this game. Based on my model, I think Everton is slightly undervalued in this match:
- Everton projected odds: +122 (45.12% win probability)
- Leicester projected odds: +243 (29.14%)
- Draw projected odds: +289 (25.73%)
- Everton projected xG: 1.48
- Leicester projected xG: 1.17
I am going to take a shot in this match and back an in form Everton squad to grab all three points at Goodison Park.
