European Soccer Forecast: Projected Betting Odds, Totals For Thursday’s Europa League Matches (Dec. 3)

European Soccer Forecast: Projected Betting Odds, Totals For Thursday’s Europa League Matches (Dec. 3) article feature image
Credit:

Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images. Pictured: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

The Europa League returns this week for the second-to-last round of group play.

For those who aren’t aware, the Europa League is the second tier of European competitions. The eight clubs that finish in third place in their respective Champions League group drop down to a 32-team playoff with the top-two finishers in each Europa League group.

The Europa League has 12 groups of four teams, which means there are 24 matches every Thursday across Europe. So, if you like action, the Europa League might be for you.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.

For the Europa League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on TransferMarkt.

That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.

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Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI:

Projections

Europa League Injury Report: 

  • AC Milan: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (ST) is questionable to play against Celtic.
  • Arsenal: Thomas Partey (CM) is out against Rapid Wien.
  • Bayer Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM), Lucas Alario (ST), Karim Bellarabi (RM), Nadiem Amiri (CM), and Sven Bender (CB) are all out against Nice.
  • Celtic: James Forrest (CB) is out against AC Milan.
  • CSKA Moscow: Mario Fernandes (RB) is questionable to face Wolfsberger.
  • Feyenoord: Ridgeciano Haps (LB), Leroy Fer (CM), and Justin Bijlow (GK), Bart Nieuwkoop (RB) are out against Dinamo Zagreb.
  • Granada: Kenedy (RW) is questionable to play vs. PSV.
  • Leicester: Daniel Amartey (CM) is out against Zorya, and Timothy Castagne (RB) is questionable.
  • Lille: Renato Sanches (CM) and Zeki Celik (RB) are questionable to face Sparta Prague.
  • Napoli: Victor Osimhen (ST) is questionable to face AZ Alkmaar.
  • Nice: Youcef Atal (RB), Morgan Schneiderlin (CM), Kasper Dolberg (ST), and Hassane Kamara (LM) are out  against Leverkusen.
  • Rapid Wien: Dejan Petrovic (CM) and Dejan Ljubicic (CM) are questionable to face Arsenal.
  • Tottenham: Harry Kane (ST) and Toby Alderweireld (CB) are questionable against LASK.
  • Villarreal: Paco Alcacer (ST) is questionable to face Sivasspor.

Picks: 

  • Red Star Belgrade +0.5 (-148)
  • Granada Draw No Bet (-129)
  • Roma +100
  • Roma/Young Boys Over 3 (+125)
  • Nice +1 (-114)
  • Celtic +1.5 (-108)