European Soccer Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Parlay, Featuring Nice & Sevilla (Oct. 17)

European Soccer Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Parlay, Featuring Nice & Sevilla (Oct. 17) article feature image
Credit:

Fran Santiago/Getty Images. Pictured: Sevilla standouts Youssef En-Nesyri, left, and Erik Lamela.

We are back it again with another featured parlay on Sunday’s soccer card, this time focusing our attention on matches outside the Premier League.

Soccer handicappers Jeremy Pond and BJ Cunningham are taking a swing on games in Ligue 1 and La Liga for this two-leg entry, targeting games featuring Troyes vs. Nice and Celta Vigo vs. Sevilla for the wager.

Check out their detailed thoughts and betting insight, plus what kind of price they’re getting on the parlay at DraftKings ahead of these latest contests.

Troyes vs. Nice

Troyes Odds +310
Nice Odds -110
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Jeremy Pond: We take the first leg of this wager to northeastern France, where lowly Troyes hosts powerful Nice in Ligue 1 action.

The host side is off to an abysmal start, earning just one win in their first nine matches in the French top flight. Troyes, which is 1-5-3 (W-L-D) so far, simply can’t get anything going at either end of the pitch. The club only totaled 9.3 expected goals and conceded a brutal 14.1 expected-goals against, resulting in a brutal -4.8 xGDiff and -0.53 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per FBref.com.

In contrast, things couldn’t be going any better for the Eaglets. They’re sitting pretty in third place with 16 points, going unbeaten in seven of eight fixtures.

Offensively, Nice has been the best in France when it comes to the offensive advanced metrics. The Eaglets boast a league-leading 19.7 xG, which is even better than mighty Paris Saint-Germain (17.6 xG) up to this point.The visiting outfit has scored at least two goals in six of their last seven league clashes, which should have it brimming with confidence heading into this affair.

That said, I fully expect Nice to deliver another strong performance and earn its third consecutive win. Troyes is going to be in a relegation fight all season and I don’t see this matchup doing anything but creating additional misery.

Pond’s Pick: Nice ML (-110)

Celta Vigo vs. Sevilla

Celta Vigo Odds +245
Sevilla Odds +125
Draw +215
Over/Under 2.5 (+130 / -155)
Day | Time Sunday | 10:15 a.m. ET
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BJ Cunningham: Sevilla has been the best La Liga team in La Liga to start the season, boasting an +7.23 xGDiff in only seven matches and the main reason for that is because of their defense, which has allowed a total of 3.91 xG this season.

2021-2022 🇪🇸 La Liga xG Difference Leaders

Sevilla (6.4)
Real Sociedad (5.3)
Barcelona (4.1)
Athletic Club (3.7)
Betis (3.7)
Real Madrid (3.6)
Atlético Madrid (3.1)
Valencia (3.1)
Villarreal (2.8)
Osasuna (1.6)https://t.co/jK9vsIofI9

— ⚽️FBref.com⚽️ (@fbref) October 5, 2021

Defensively, they’ve allowed the second-fewest shots; second-fewest crosses completed into the box; fewest shot-creating actions; and, the fewest touches in their own final third, per fbref.com. So, it’s going to be very difficult for an offense like the one Celta Vigo has that only created 6.83 non-penalty expected goals in their first eight matches.

Bottom line, Celta Vigo is in a very bad spot heading into this match because at the time of writing they could to be without five starters, including its two starting center backs.

They’ve been really bad to start the season with a -4.98 xGDiff, plus they have a couple of concerning losses where they lost the game and xG battle against inferior opponents. The results were a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Cadiz and a 1-0 road setback at Elche before the international break.

I have Sevilla projected at -103, so I think there’s plenty of value on them at +125 on DraftKings and would play them down to +112 odds.

Cunningham’s Pick: Sevilla ML (+125)

Pond & Cunningham Parlay

Nice ML (-110) & Sevilla ML (+125) at +329 odds via DraftKings

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