Often described as the fixture that absolutely nobody wants to play, this World Cup third-place match will see France and England face off. Kickoff is set at 5:00 PM ET in Miami.
Our team of experts has three picks for the match, so let's dive into today's France vs England World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:00 p.m. | |
| 5:00 p.m. | |
| 5:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
France vs England Team to Win Pick
France has shown more in this tournament than England, despite failing to score for the first time in this World Cup in their 2-0 semifinal defeat to Spain.
The 2018 World Cup champions scored 16 goals so far, opposite England’s 14, but the deciding factor will still be Les Bleus’ stronger defense. Didier Deschamps’ men conceded four goals in seven games, while England allowed eight.
France hasn’t lost to England at major tournaments since the 1982 World Cup in Spain. Since then, France has two wins, one at the World Cup four years ago in the quarter-finals in Qatar, and one at Euro 2004, while two head-to-head meetings ended as draws, both at the Euros.
On the other hand, the Three Lions haven’t won a medal at the World Cup since their historic 1966 run when they lifted the trophy as the tournament’s host.
Although both head coaches will likely rotate their fatigued squads for this third-place battle, expect France to display a much better performance than they did against Spain.
Pick: France to Finish Third (-240)
France vs England Total Goals Pick
Both teams are heading into this final match after disappointing semifinal performances, meaning a high-tempo, wide-open encounter with numerous clear-cut scoring opportunities is highly unlikely, as players might struggle to cope with the mental and physical exhaustion.
Furthermore, a 5:00 PM local time kick-off will force both of these squads to battle against the sweltering and humid Miami heat, conditions that will almost certainly prevent either side from making a blisteringly fast and energetic start to the match.
History also strongly suggests this particular consolation fixture is rarely a high-scoring thriller, with none of the last three World Cup third-place play-offs producing more than three goals within the regulation ninety minutes of play. Furthermore, if we look at recent third-place play-offs between European nations, only one of the four third-place finals contested in the Nations League since 2019 has produced more than three goals within 90 minutes.
The stadium in Miami itself has hardly been a hotbed for free-flowing, goal-heavy football, as only one of the six World Cup matches played in the city so far has managed to yield more than three goals during regulation time.
Indeed, England, who struggled during their quarter-final clash against Norway in Miami a week ago in a match that also kicked off at 5 pm local time, finished level at 1-1 in regulation time before eventually progressing after extra-time.
Picks: Under 3.5 Goals (-134)
France vs England Goalscorer Pick
Kylian Mbappe remains firmly in contention for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot, with his eight goals matching Lionel Messi’s tally.
The underlying metrics highlight Mbappe’s incredible contribution, as his 5.48 xG (expected goals) is the highest in the tournament for individual performances. Furthermore, no player has taken more shots on target than Mbappe with 19.
Mbappe has averaged 4.7 shots per game at the 2026 World Cup, with 1.7 of those efforts coming from outside the box. The French forward’s ability to strike from distance could prove valuable against England, as Argentina exposed a potential weakness in Thomas Tuchel’s side with Enzo Fernandez’s long-range goal easily sailing past Jordan Pickford.
So far in the World Cup 2026, Mbappe has scored two goals from outside the box. Similarly, in the 2025/26 La Liga season, Kylian Mbappe scored 25 goals, with six of those from outside of the box.
England’s vulnerability to long-range efforts has been exposed more than once at the 2026 World Cup. Martin Baturina’s goal in a 4-2 England win against Croatia and Andreas Schjelderup’s goal in the 2-1 England win over Norway likely made Lionel Scaloni take this into consideration. Enzo Fernández's long-range shot and equalizing goal were the turning point in Argentina’s win.
Mbappe is the odds-on favourite to score a goal in this duel, but the real value lies in backing him to score from outside the box at the high price offered.
Pick: Kylian Mbappe to Score From Outside the Box (+850)
