Fulham vs West Ham Odds, Pick | Premier League Betting Analysis
Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: Lucas Paqueta.
Fulham vs West Ham Odds
Fulham Odds | +185 |
West Ham Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+118 / -144) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-118 / -108) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Fulham host West Ham in a crucial London Derby for the Hammers in their quest to survive relegation.
The Cottagers are starting to trend downwards after losing four straight matches across all competitions. They have drastically over-performed to this point in the season and now are starting to see some of that negative regression hit them. To make matters worse, they're going to be without their best player Aleksander Mitrovic for an extended period of time.
West Ham were dismantled by Newcastle on Wednesday 5-1 at home and David Moyes' seat is getting hotter and hotter by the day. West Ham are still firmly in the relegation battle even if they have under-performed the season. This is one of the better opportunities left on the schedule for West Ham to pick up points, so this match is very important to their chances at survival.
Fulham Trending Downwards
Fulham are in a downward spiral and are likely going to be that way for the foreseeable future because their best player and striker Aleksander Mitrovic has been handed an eight match ban for a red card received in their FA Cup match recently against Manchester United.
You could make the argument that Mitrovic is the most important player to his team in the Premier League. He's created 12.3 of their 34.5 xG and in the seven matches without Mitrovic Fulham are averaging 0.81 xG per match. With Mitrovic in the lineup they’re averaging 1.37 xG per match.
He also makes a massive difference because of Fulham's style of play. They want to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses because Mitrovic is such a dangerous aerial threat. Fulham have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League, but West Ham are top five at defending crosses.
The Fulham defense has also completely fallen off a cliff. Over their last three matches against Brentford, Arsenal and Bournemouth, they have conceded a whopping 8.1 xG and five big scoring chances. The Cottagers are now dead last in the Premier League in npxG at 1.61 per 90 minutes.
West Ham Underrated Due to Results
West Ham are the most underrated team in the Premier League. For the season, the Hammers have a -13 goal differential, but a +0.9 xGD. Much like West Ham, they like to get the ball into wide areas and swing in crosses and they do it at a top five rate, while Fulham are 15th at defending crosses. West Ham have underperformed offensively as of late as well, scoring three goals off of 4.8 expected in their last four matches.
Despite what you saw on Wednesday against Newcastle, the Hammers are actually a good defensive team. West Ham are only allowing 1.14 npxG per 90 minutes, which is sixth in the Premier League. The Hammers don't provide much resistance when teams come into their final third, but they're one of the best teams in the Premier League at preventing teams from entering their penalty area once the get into the final third.
West Ham do have a Europa Conference League quarterfinal match coming up on Thursday but they still need points to get out of the relegation zone, so they have to take this match seriously.
Fulham vs West Ham Pick
The negative regression for Fulham's defense has hit in a big way, but it's important to note that more is still coming. In their last three matches they've conceded eight goals off of 8.1 xG, so they haven't been unlucky by any stretch of the imagination.
For the season, Fulham have allowed 39 goals off of 47.5 xG, so this is a good value opportunity for the Hammers.
I have West Ham projected as a +109 road favorite, so I love the value on the West Ham draw no bet line.
Pick: West Ham – Draw No Bet (-116)
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