Italy Serie A Week 31 Betting Preview: Juventus Can Clinch Eighth Straight Scudetto
Juventus FC. Pictured: Miralem Pjanic
- Juventus have a chance to wrap up their eighth consecutive Serie A title this weekend with a win against AC Milan on Saturday (12 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
- Odds have shifted toward AC Milan to spoil the fun despite nearly 80% of the bets on Juventus.
Juventus can clinch the Serie A title faster than any club in league history if they beat AC Milan on home soil Saturday and second-place Napoli lose to Genoa on Sunday.
The gap at the top of the league is currently 18 points, similar to France’s Ligue 1, where PSG have run away with yet another domestic title of their own.
Prior to the season, Juventus were listed at -260 to win Italy’s Serie A with Napoli (+600), Roma (+650) and Inter Milan (+800) their closest contenders.
Juve are favorites to beat Milan but odds have been dropping considerably. Here’s a look at how the betting market is shaping up for Week 31’s action.
Week 31 Odds and Betting Breakdown
This weekend starts with a three-match slate on Saturday in which bettors have been highly active already.
After opening -180 early Monday morning, Juventus‘ odds quickly crashed down to -150 and have been falling ever since. I thought some of the shift may have been due to Juve resting players in anticipation of Wednesday’s Champions League match at Ajax, but that won’t happen according to manager Massimiliano Allegri.
Even though they’ll be without Cristiano Ronaldo due to injury, Juve have nearly all their attacking options available with the return of Paulo Dybala and Mario Mandžukić, and they’re expected to start their strongest starting XI.
AC Milan will really have to turn things around to get a result after earning just one point in their previous three Serie A matches. Despite the massive line shift toward the road side, I don’t like their chances of picking up any points in Turin.
Another notable line move has been Fiorentina (-190 to -220) against Frosinone for Sunday afternoon. Despite going winless in six straight league games, bettors are confident that Fiorentina will finally pick up a victory against a side surely to be relegated.
With four big home favorites on the board, the popular moneyline parlay will be Fiorentina/Juventus/Napoli/Lazio which pays out at +350. If you take out Juventus from the equation, the parlay drops down to +150 though both are decent options.
At the very bottom of the table, Chievo are almost assured to to be relegated after they were crushed by Sassuolo on Thursday night, 4-0. They’ve earned just one win all season long with an abysmal -40 goal differential and are +600 underdogs against Bologna, another club stuck in the relegation zone.
As for the totals market, sharp money has hit the Inter Milan-Atalanta Over (2.5) and the Bologna-Chievo Over (2.5).
It’s easy to see why for Inter-Atalanta as they both scored four goals in their last outing and Atalanta beat Inter, 4-1, in their head-to-head matchup earlier in the season.
It’s a bit more unclear the other match as Chievo have scored just twice in the last eight games, and frankly have struggled scoring all season. Bettors on the over must be confident that Bologna will easily grab two or three goals at home, and at that point you’re probably better off taking the team total instead.
Value Play (Serie A Season Record: 0-1-0, -1 unit)
- Fiorentina/Napoli/Lazio parlay (+150)
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