Download the App Image

La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Wager From Villarreal vs. Real Madrid (Feb. 12-13)

La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Wager From Villarreal vs. Real Madrid (Feb. 12-13) article feature image
Credit:

Diego Souto/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid teammates Eden Hazard and goalkeeper Thibault Courtois.

La Liga action will be all over Spain this weekend with another full slate of games on the busy slate, including a match between two Champions League squads as the featured headliner.

Real Madrid was able to extend its lead at the top of the table to six points following last week’s victory, but it will face a much tougher test on Saturday’s trip to Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine has been the in-form team across all of Europe since the turn of the new year, which sets up to be a great showdown.

For the other top teams, Sevilla and Atlético Madrid have home tilts against sides pushing to avoid relegation. Meanwhile, Barcelona faces crosstown rival Espanyol in the Catalan Derby on Sunday’s schedule.

Last weekend was a winning week for us, so let’s keep the momentum going with my three best bets for upcoming matches in the Spanish top flight.

La Liga Best Bets

Cádiz vs. Celta Vigo

Cádiz Odds +285
Celta Vigo Odds +105
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -140)
Day | Time Saturday | 8 a.m. ET
How To Watch ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

For my first best bet, I will be backing the total staying under 2.5 goals at -140 odds in the clash between Cádiz and Celta Vigo.

Finding the back of the net has been a real struggle for the hosts this season, ranking 19th in La Liga in expected goals per 90 minutes (0.92), shots per match (9.35) and big scoring chances created (12), according to fbref.com.

This issue doesn’t get any better in home games for Cádiz, with the combined total falling under 2.5 goals in eight of 11 (73%) of league games at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. The same bet also would have cashed in four of the last six games in La Liga play.

Meanwhile, Celta Vigo is also known to play to some low-scoring matches, especially on the road. Of the 11 away league fixtures, seven of those contests (64%) have finished under the total of 2.5 goals.

The advanced metrics also tell the same story, with Celta Vigo’s matches averaging a combined xG of 1.75 in the last four La Liga games. The Under 2.5 goals got to the window in three of those fixtures.

If you want a better price, I also like playing the under 2.25 goals at -110 odds on the Asian Handicap if your sportsbook offers it.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-140)

Villarreal vs. Real Madrid

Villarreal Odds +160
Real Madrid Odds +175
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET
How To Watch ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

The Saturday main event will likely be missing the star players, which I believe gives Villarreal a great shot of getting a victory in this match.

Real Madrid’s strikers Karim Benzema and Vinícius Júnior will likely both be out another game due to injuries, with Los Blancos saving them for the midweek Champions League fixture against French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain.

With those two off the pitch, the Spanish giants will be missing a combined 29 league goals and nine assists this season. The two have directly played a hand in 79 percent of Real Madrid’s goals in La Liga this campaign.

While Villarreal will also be without its top scorer Gerard Moreno, it won’t be anything new as the Yellow Submarine have had to play without Moreno in 10 other league matches this season. The team picked up 16 points on four wins and draws to go along with just two losses in those games.

This is the same Villarreal team that has been one of the best sides in all of Europe over the last couple of months, posting a +10.6 expected goals difference and winning six of its last eight in the Spanish top flight.

The Yellow Submarine is catching Real Madrid in the perfect scheduling spot here, and I’m backing the home team to get a result to keep climbing up the league table.

Pick: Villarreal Pick’em (-110)

Real Sociedad vs. Granada

Real Sociedad Odds -250
Granada Odds +750
Draw +370
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

My final best bet of the weekend is another low-scoring affair between Real Sociedad and Granada, with the total staying under 2.5 goals being a very profitable bet for these teams this season.

I’ll start first with the home and road splits for these teams, where no La Liga team has a higher percentage of its home games falling under 2.5 goals than Sociedad at 91 percent (10 of 11) to go along with an average of 1.18 combined goals per outing.

Meanwhile, the same bet would have cashed in 67% of Granada’s away games this campaign, averaging just 2.25 total goals per away fixture.

The recent form of the squads also points to the under, with four of the last six league games for both clubs finishing under 2.5 goals. Over this stretch, Real Sociedad’s matches have averaged 2.367 combined expected goals. If you remove the Villarreal fixture (4.1 xG), the average drops to 2.02 not the season.

As for the visitor, Granada has only averaged 0.93 xG in its last six league games to go along with a combined xG average of 2.23 of the same span.

When you add it all up, this is another game that I believe has great value to get another winning under ticket to the window.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

How would you rate this article?