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Leicester City vs Arsenal Odds, Pick: League Leaders Will Return to Winning Ways

Leicester City vs Arsenal Odds, Pick: League Leaders Will Return to Winning Ways article feature image

Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Eddie Nketiah of Arsenal

Leicester City vs Arsenal Odds

Sat, Feb. 25
10 a.m. ET

Leicester City Odds


Arsenal Odds

Draw +325
Over/Under 2.5 (-159 / +132)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-137 / +110)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Arsenal look to remain atop the Premier League table when they travel to the King Power Stadium to take on Leicester City.

Leicester’s good run of form ended at Old Trafford on Sunday in the worst defensive performance by xG of anybody this season. The Foxes are in the bottom half of the table and really are showing no signs of contending for a top half finish. They are safe from relegation at the moment, but a few more bad results and they could get pulled into the relegation fight.

Arsenal snatched a late winner against Aston Villa last Saturday to retain their top spot in the Premier League table. The Gunners are in a pile up of fixtures at the moment, as they now have a match against Everton this upcoming Wednesday and then another match against Bournemouth next weekend.

They need all three points to stay atop the table, so you will get a fully focused side on Saturday.

Leicester City Struggling and Due For Added Regression

Leicester got annihilated by Manchester United in a good spot for the Foxes on Sunday. They conceded a whopping 4.1 xG, four big scoring chances and had 19 of their 25 shots come inside the penalty area. After that dismal performance, Leicester are now dead last in the Premier League in npxG allowed at 1.64 per 90 minutes.

The Foxes have been over-performing offensively as of late as well. In their last four matches they have scored 10 goals off of 6.4 xG. Leicester are a very good team at controlling possession, they want to build out of the back through Tielemens and Maddison.

They aren’t the best team when they have to sit in a low block and defend for a majority of the match, which was very evident against Manchester United. Usually, Leicester play a 4-4-2 out of possession and they will press you high, which is a dangerous game to play against Arsenal, particularly if you are an average pressing team like Leicester. 

The problems that exist for Leicester offensively come in the final third. The Foxes are good at getting the ball into the final third, but once it’s there, they don’t have a clinical finisher and they aren’t able to generated good quality chances.

Leicester are eighth in final third entries, but they are 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate. That is why you see Leicester leading the Premier League with 10 goals from outside the box. Leicester are also second-last in the Premier League in xG per set piece, which is bad news because Arsenal’s set piece defense is where they are weakest.

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Arsenal Returning to Solid Form

Arsenal pummeled Aston Villa. The final score line and Jorginho scoring in stoppage time will say it was close, but Arsenal controlled 67% possession, out-shot Aston Villa 20-7 and had 44 touches in the penalty area versus Villa’s 10.

It’s a really good goal this, especially considering the pressure of the moment. 93 mins!

Early vertical passes from Ramsdale and especially Jorginho key to the move. Then Arsenal show patience to find the shooting opportunity on the edge of the

— gunnerblog (@gunnerblog) February 20, 2023

The Arsenal defense has conceded just 14.3 xG from open play in 23 matches and is only allowing 0.89 npxG per 90 minutes this season. In fact, Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League in terms of big scoring chances allowed and have allowed just five in their past 12 matches.

Arsenal’s attack has also been amazing this season and Thomas Partey has been a big reason why. He is by far the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League and he allows Granit Xhaka to get forward and create overloads in attack, which frees space up for all the other Arsenal attackers.

Partey has missed the past two matches, but he will be back in the lineup on Saturday.

Leicester City vs Arsenal Pick

Leicester can be dangerous in transition with the talent they have on the ball, but Arsenal are the best transition defense in the Premier League and will be getting Partey back in the lineup, which is great news for Arsenal. 

The Foxes are also 18th in the Premier League in xG allowed per set piece, while Arsenal are the most efficient team in the Premier League at defending set pieces. 

The last time these two faced off – albeit it was in August 0 Arsenal destroyed Leicester 4-2, created over 2.5 xG, tilted the field on them at 74.2% and had 15 shots inside the penalty area. Arsenal’s attack should have no problem progressing the ball up the pitch and getting into Leicester’s penalty area with ease. 

So, I like the value on on Arsenal at -136, and I have them projected at -155.

Pick: Arsenal -136 (BetRivers)

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